My biggest realization in the past two years is a simple truth: if your position size is wrong, having the right direction doesn't matter. Holding spot assets you can't keep is mostly because your position keeps you awake at night; futures liquidation is even simpler, leverage amplifies volatility to a point you can't handle. To put it plainly, first figure out how much you can lose in a single trade: I usually risk no more than 1% to 2% of my account on one trade, then work backwards to determine how much to size the position and where to place the stop-loss. If it doesn't fit, don't force it—better to miss out.

Recently, everyone has been talking about rate cut expectations, the US dollar index moving in tandem with risk assets… In such times, I dare not go all-in. When the market pulls back, slippage and emotional hits come together. Now I’m used to testing liquidity first with $20 (if I see the order book slip, I withdraw), wait 15 minutes to confirm it’s not a false breakout before adding more; after all, what keeps me alive isn’t predictions, but position sizing.