I just noticed that gold in the forex market is dropping below $4,700 for the second day. It seems that the situation between the U.S. and Iran is helping the dollar strengthen, and when the dollar gets stronger, gold naturally weakens.

What’s interesting is that although the dollar is supported by geopolitical tensions, the expectation that the Fed might cut interest rates later this year still limits the dollar’s rise. According to CME Group data, there’s about a 35% chance that the Fed will lower interest rates, which appears to prevent forex gold from falling much further at this moment.

From a technical perspective, the RSI is around 41 and the MACD remains negative, indicating that the bearish momentum is still present but not very strong. If gold breaks below the support level at $4,655, we might see further declines. However, I’m waiting to see what the FOMC meeting starting today will say, because Jerome Powell’s words could change the game.