Recently, I’ve been analyzing the forecast trends of the USD to CNY exchange rate and found some interesting phenomena. Last year (2025), the yuan experienced a significant appreciation, gradually rebounding from a depreciation dilemma at the beginning of the year, and by the end of the year, it had risen below 7.08, even touching a nearly one-year high of 7.0765. The underlying logic is quite clear: easing China-U.S. trade relations and rising expectations of Fed rate cuts have all become strong supports for the yuan.

Looking back at the entire trend of 2025, the first half was indeed quite difficult. Uncertainty around tariff policies combined with a strong dollar index caused offshore RMB to break through 7.40, hitting a historic low since 2015. But in the second half, the situation improved markedly. China-U.S. negotiations advanced steadily, the dollar index weakened from strength, and the RMB began to steadily rebound. During this process, other non-U.S. currencies like the euro and pound also generally appreciated, and overall market sentiment gradually stabilized.

Now, halfway through 2026, looking back at those institutional forecasts, they remain quite accurate. Deutsche Bank initially predicted the RMB would rise to 7.0 by the end of 2025 and further to 6.7 by the end of 2026, and that direction was basically correct. Morgan Stanley forecasted the dollar index would fall back to 89 and the RMB exchange rate would reach around 7.05 by the end of 2026, which is also quite close to current trends. The Goldman Sachs report that caused a stir was even more precise; they emphasized that the real effective exchange rate of the RMB was undervalued, and this judgment was validated in subsequent appreciation.

The key is to understand the core driving factors behind the USD to CNY exchange rate forecast. The dollar index plummeted 9% in the first five months of 2025, setting a record for the worst start, which directly promoted the appreciation of Asian currencies, including the RMB. Meanwhile, China’s export performance remained resilient, providing long-term support for the RMB. Although the Fed’s rate-cutting pace slowed somewhat, the overall direction remained accommodative, exerting downward pressure on the dollar.

From an investment perspective, predicting the USD to CNY exchange rate now still requires focusing on several key indicators. First, China’s central bank monetary policy stance—loose policies generally put pressure on the yuan, but if combined with strong fiscal stimulus to stabilize the economy, it can be a long-term positive for the RMB. Second, China’s economic data—GDP growth, PMI, CPI—these directly influence foreign capital inflows and thus affect RMB demand. Third, the Fed’s movements—its policy direction directly determines the fluctuations of the dollar and consequently the USD/CNY rate.

Some friends ask me whether they can still invest in RMB-related currency pairs now. Honestly, if you have some judgment about the exchange rate trend, there are still opportunities. In the short term, the RMB is expected to remain relatively strong, although significant appreciation might be limited, but there are arbitrage opportunities within the range fluctuations. The key is to choose the right investment method and platform.

Currently, there are several channels to invest in RMB. The traditional way is to open a foreign exchange account through a bank, but this method generally has lower liquidity and higher costs. A more flexible option is to find a forex margin trading platform, such as Mitrade, XTB, Admirals—these licensed platforms offer 24-hour trading, support two-way trading and leverage, especially suitable for investors with their own views on the USD/CNY trend. These platforms usually have low trading costs and provide risk management tools like take profit and stop loss, which are friendly to small investors.

In the long run, the upward trend of the RMB may already be established. The depreciation cycle that began in 2022 has come to an end, and we are now entering a new appreciation phase. This cycle could last quite a long time, with fluctuations along the way, but the overall direction should be positive. As long as you can grasp the factors influencing the USD/CNY forecast, you can find your opportunities in the market.