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Recently, investing in U.S. bonds has become a hot topic in the global financial markets. As economic uncertainty increases, Korean investors are turning their attention to U.S. Treasuries as a safe asset, but there are many considerations beyond simply "being safe" before investing.
U.S. Treasuries are debt securities issued by the U.S. government, with principal and interest payments guaranteed based on the government's creditworthiness. In fact, they are considered a preferred safe asset among global investors because the risk of default is virtually nonexistent. From an investor's perspective, it’s like lending money to the government and receiving a fixed interest in return.
U.S. Treasuries are broadly divided into three categories based on maturity. Short-term Treasuries (T-Bills) with maturities of less than one year are issued at a discount, making them less sensitive to interest rate fluctuations and suitable for short-term cash management. Medium-term Treasuries (Treasury Notes) with maturities of 2 to 10 years are the most actively traded, especially the 10-year note, which is widely used as a benchmark interest rate. Long-term Treasuries (Treasury Bonds) with maturities of 20 or 30 years offer relatively higher yields but also carry greater price volatility due to interest rate changes.
When considering investing in U.S. bonds, the most important concept is yield. The yield to maturity (YTM) represents the total return an investor will earn if they buy the bond at the current price and hold it until maturity. An interesting point is that bond prices and yields have an inverse relationship. When prices go up, yields go down; when prices fall, yields rise. This is due to the difference between the bond’s face value and its market price—if the price is higher than face value, the interest paid remains the same, but the yield decreases.
Factors influencing the U.S. bond market are complex. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate policies have the most direct impact. When rates rise, existing bond prices tend to fall as their relative attractiveness decreases; when rates fall, bond prices tend to rise. Inflation is also a key variable. Higher inflation erodes the value of money, prompting investors to demand higher yields, which in turn puts downward pressure on bond prices.
Government spending and debt levels are also significant. When the government issues a large amount of bonds, supply increases, causing prices to fall and yields to rise. Conversely, austerity measures that reduce issuance tend to push prices up and yields down. Uncertainty in the global economy often increases demand for safe assets like U.S. Treasuries, which can drive prices higher.
There are several ways for Korean investors to start investing in U.S. bonds. First, they can purchase directly through the U.S. Treasury’s TreasuryDirect website. The minimum purchase is $100, and there are no transaction fees, which is an advantage. Second, they can use overseas bond trading services offered by domestic securities firms. Minimum trading amounts and conditions vary by broker, so checking is necessary. Third, they can invest in U.S. Treasury bond ETFs. Asset managers like iShares or Vanguard offer U.S. Treasury ETFs, allowing indirect investment, and domestic markets also offer currency-hedged products (H-mark).
The biggest advantage of investing in U.S. bonds is stability. U.S. government bonds are highly trusted with almost no default risk, making them suitable for investors seeking steady returns. However, a downside is that their yields are relatively low. Considering currency gains, actual returns could be higher, but it’s important to remember that there is also a risk of currency losses.
Compared to U.S. stocks, how do they differ? Stocks tend to be more volatile due to company performance but generally offer higher returns on average. They are actively traded worldwide, providing high liquidity. In contrast, Treasuries have lower volatility and offer fixed interest income.
Ultimately, investing in U.S. bonds should be based on a clear understanding of your investment goals and risk tolerance. It’s crucial to consider factors like interest rate movements, currency risk, and inflation comprehensively. For short-term cash management, short-term Treasuries are effective; for long-term stability, long-term Treasuries are suitable. Choosing products aligned with your situation is the first step toward building an effective portfolio.