Next week (5.18–5.24) Bitcoin Market Forecast: A Comprehensive Analysis of International Current Events

1. Major International Current Events Affecting Next Week (Directly Determining BTC Trends)

1. Middle East Geopolitical Conflicts (Largest Short-term Variable)

The US and Israel will likely resume military strikes against Iran early next week. Iran announced control over the Strait of Hormuz, threatening about 20% of global oil transportation. Brent crude oil remains stable at $105, directly boosting global inflation expectations.

2. Key Federal Reserve Policy Milestones (Core Liquidity Anchor)

New Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell officially took office on May 15. Coupled with April’s CPI year-over-year increase of 3.8%, exceeding expectations, the expectation of a rate cut in 2026 has basically faded. The probability of rate hikes this year has risen to 40%, and the high-interest-rate environment continues to suppress risk asset valuations. Powell exhibits both hawkish tapering and dovish rate cut tendencies, and publicly recognizes Bitcoin’s value. Next week, Fed officials’ intensive speeches will directly influence dollar liquidity expectations, which is crucial for BTC’s medium-term direction.

3. Major Positive Developments in US Cryptocurrency Regulation

The US “CLARITY Digital Asset Clarity Act” has passed the Senate committee vote. Next week, it will enter the full chamber debate stage. If smoothly passed, it will establish a compliant status for digital commodities for BTC, accelerating institutional funds into spot ETFs, forming a medium- to long-term support force.

4. Continued Easing of US-China Trade Relations

Previously, Trump’s visit to China reached a trade consensus. Nearly 40% of the delegation’s senior executives are related to the crypto industry. Easing US-China relations will reduce global systemic risks and boost overall risk asset sentiment.

2. Next Week’s Bitcoin Market Scenario Predictions

Next week is likely to remain mainly range-bound, with key supports at $78,000 and $77,500; key resistances at $81,900 and $82,500.

Long-term operation suggestion: Buy on dips near $78,000 and $77,500; target $82,500.