Recently, I’ve been following the gold market trend— the more I look, the more interesting it becomes. On the surface, rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks are pushing up gold prices, but if you dig deeper, you’ll find that underneath it all, it’s actually the widening cracks in the global credit system. That’s the real logic behind gold’s future price action.

First, let’s talk about a fact that many people overlook. Before 2022, the market linked gold prices in a simple, straightforward way to real interest rates and the U.S. dollar trend, but after foreign exchange reserves were frozen that year, the rules of the game changed. Central banks around the world began to realize that dollar-denominated assets aren’t as safe as people had assumed. This is why, from 2022 to now, central banks’ gold-buying momentum has never stopped. According to data from the World Gold Council, in 2025 the world’s central banks’ net gold purchases exceeded 1,200 tons, already marking four consecutive years above the 1,000-ton threshold. Even more importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks expect to increase the share of gold in the coming five years while reducing dollar reserves. This isn’t short-term speculation—this is a structural shift.

From an investment perspective, the current situation in gold is quite interesting. The nominal peak has already been broken, but after adjusting for inflation, the real gold price still has room compared with the historical peak in 1980. That leaves imagination space for a long-term uptrend. At the same time, global total debt has reached $307 trillion, and the flexibility of interest-rate policies across countries is becoming increasingly limited. Monetary policy will inevitably tilt more toward easing, which indirectly suppresses real interest rates and provides sustained support for gold.

But the drivers behind this market move are actually quite complex. In the short term, uncertainty around trade protectionism, expectations of Fed rate cuts, and geopolitical risks are all generating volatility. In the medium term, it’s the long-term adjustment in trust in the U.S. dollar and the ongoing gold purchases by central banks—these are the structural forces that lift the bottom. Many people only see the short-term upside and chase after the spike, but that means they’re ignoring this layered structure.

When it comes to gold’s future trend, institutional forecasts differ significantly. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target price from $5,400 to $5,700; JPMorgan expects it to reach $6,300 in Q4; and UBS’s full-year average price forecast is $5,000, but its mid-year target is $6,200. In an optimistic scenario, Société Générale and Wells Fargo predict gold could move into the $6,500 to $7,200 range— but that would require geopolitical crises to escalate or the dollar to depreciate sharply. The consensus is that in 2026, it will be more like high-level consolidation with an upward bias rather than a one-way rally with no return.

Can you still buy now? My view depends on your positioning. If you’re an experienced short-term trader, volatility is an opportunity—especially before and after U.S. evening-market data releases. Times such as Non-Farm Payrolls, CPI, and FOMC typically amplify volatility, and technical analysis is easier to apply. But you must set strict stop-losses—risk control of 1–2% is important.

If you’re a beginner, start with a small amount to test the waters and don’t blindly add more. Learn to use an economic calendar to track when U.S. data is released—this can help you make better decisions. Once your mindset breaks down, it’s easy to end up losing everything.

If you’re a long-term allocation investor, gold is suitable as a diversification tool within an investment portfolio, but you need to be psychologically prepared to withstand a drawdown of more than 20%. Gold’s average annual fluctuation is 19.4%, which is higher than the S&P 500’s 14.7%, so the volatility isn’t low at all. Don’t put your entire life savings into it—diversification is more reliable.

Experienced investors can consider combining long and short approaches—holding a core position long-term, while using the volatility in a satellite position for short-term trades. Especially before and after U.S. evening-market data releases, volatility becomes noticeably larger, creating trading opportunities. But this requires strong risk-control capability.

Go with the trend, and decide how to enter only after you’ve clarified your positioning. The trading costs of physical gold are too high (5–20%), and frequent trading will eat away at a large portion of your profits. If you want to do swing trades, gold ETFs or gold XAU/USD typically offer better liquidity.

One final point: when central banks buy gold, it reflects long-term doubt about the U.S. dollar system. This trend won’t suddenly disappear in 2026, because sticky inflation, ongoing debt pressure, and continuing geopolitical tensions are still there. The gold price floor keeps getting higher—bear markets have limited downside, while bull markets have strong continuation power. But keep in mind that gold’s rise is never a straight line. In 2025, it pulled back 10–15% due to adjustments in Fed policy expectations. In early 2026, real interest rates rebounded, crises eased, and there was also an 18% sharp correction. Volatility can be fierce, but if you monitor the market systematically, you can often seize opportunities. Don’t chase the news blindly—building a clear analytical framework matters far more than trying to predict short-term prices.