The gold market today is quite volatile. The market opened this morning with a sharp drop to $4,670, then attempted to rebound to around $4,716. The Sell-side trend still has the upper hand, because of last yesterday’s news from Pakistan—peace talks have failed.

Actually, based on what I’ve been following, the negotiations led by JD Vance with Iran are not going well. The U.S. wants Iran to relinquish nuclear weapons, but Iran is demanding compensation and the return of rights in the Strait of Hormuz. In the end, the talks fell apart like that—Trump then issued an order to the Navy to blockade shipping routes into and out of Iran’s ports. The result is that oil prices keep rising, which stokes fears of inflation.

The inflation situation is still a problem. Last month’s CPI came in at 3.3% year over year. Although it was slightly lower than expected, the consumer confidence index fell to 47.6. In addition, inflation expectations for next year are projected to reach 4.8%. That makes investors sell gold, fearing the Fed will keep interest rates high.

Technical analysis from the latest 4H chart clearly shows that the EMA 200 line is still a strong resistance. Price is moving within a downward channel. RSI is at 47, leaning slightly bearish, but not yet oversold—so there is still room for the price to drop further.

From a short-term trend perspective, the price may rebound to test resistance at $4,780 - $4,784, but it’s expected that it won’t be able to break higher. Then selling pressure is likely to push it back down. The first target is $4,694, and if resistance holds, it could slip further to $4,655.

For traders who want to find timing, I recommend waiting for the price to rebound first, and then looking for price rejection signals—such as a doji or long upper wicks pointing upward—before placing a Sell order. For the Buy side, I suggest waiting, because the market is not clear enough. Volatility is still too high. It’s better to wait until the price drops to a strong support level first, and then see whether there is a clear return of buying momentum.