I have recently noticed that many people are asking when gold will drop in Saudi Arabia, and the truth is that the answer isn't as simple as it may seem. The Saudi gold market is more complex than just following the global price; there are local and seasonal factors that play a very significant role.

Over the past few months of 2025, we have seen a noticeable increase in prices, with the 21-karat gold gram ranging between 440 and 455 SAR in December. This rise didn't come out of nowhere — it was the result of a complex interaction between global markets and local dynamics. High global inflation, US interest rate cuts, and increased local mining production all contributed to shaping the current prices.

Now, in mid-2026, the question on investors' minds is: when will gold actually drop? From my market observations, I see several signals that could lead to temporary declines. First, when the US dollar strengthens significantly, gold usually suffers. Second, rising global interest rates make bonds and deposits more attractive, reducing demand for the yellow metal.

On the local level, there is a very clear pattern. Immediately after wedding and holiday seasons, there is a slowdown in purchasing, which creates a golden opportunity for investors. Also, the back-to-school season sees a noticeable decrease in consumer demand for gold and jewelry.

From a technical perspective, there are specific indicators I monitor constantly. When the dollar index exceeds 104 points, we usually see pressure on prices. And when US 10-year bond yields rise above 4%, a clear shift in investor behavior away from gold occurs.

Local production also plays an increasingly important role. Maaden increased its production by 22% in 2024, and new discoveries in Mansoura and Masara indicate ongoing expansion in supply. If this increase in production isn't matched by similar local demand, we may see price pressures.

Regarding forecasts for the second half of 2026, I expect prices to move within a range of 430 to 620 SAR per gram depending on different scenarios. The moderate scenario, which I believe is the most likely, predicts a range of 480 to 550 SAR — meaning natural corrections but not sharp crashes.

Practically speaking, the best time to buy is when several factors align — a strong dollar, rising interest rates, strong global economic data, combined with a decline in local demand. This synchronization is rare but does happen, and when it does, it’s truly a golden opportunity.

As for strategies, I do not recommend relying solely on physical gold. Diversifying between bars, paper gold, and contracts for difference (CFDs) provides greater flexibility. CFDs, in particular, offer the chance to benefit from price movements both up and down without needing to own the physical metal.

Ultimately, when gold will drop isn't a simple question with a single answer. But by understanding these factors and monitoring key indicators, you can make informed investment decisions rather than just waiting for the perfect price that may never come.