I noticed that gold experienced a wild movement at the beginning of 2026. The year started very strongly and jumped to historic levels near $5,600 per ounce in January, which is higher than most of the initial forecasts. But the momentum didn't continue at the same pace; a clear correction set in in March, and the price dropped sharply, then started moving around $4,700-$4,800 in April. Now the big question: When will gold's price rise again?

In terms of numbers, 2025 was truly an exceptional year for gold. It started the year around $3,000 and ended near $4,550, meaning roughly a 70% gain for the year. That’s significant. Central banks were continuously buying, and investors were fleeing to safe havens due to geopolitical tensions.

The problem now is that the market has become very sensitive. Any news about U.S. interest rates or dollar strength immediately impacts gold. Reuters conducted a survey with analysts and came out with an average forecast of $4,746 per ounce in 2026, which is the highest annual average since 2012.

Regarding when gold will rise again, major analysts have differing predictions. JPMorgan says it could reach $6,300 by the end of the year, UBS raised its target to $6,200, while Goldman Sachs is more cautious, with expectations around $5,400. Deutsche Bank predicts $6,000. The variation in forecasts reflects real uncertainty in the market.

The factors driving gold are clear: inflation, dollar strength, Fed policies, geopolitical risks, and central bank demand. Inflation rose to 3.3% in March after being 2.4% in February, meaning price pressures have returned. This usually supports gold in the long term.

Personally, I think when gold will rise depends on whether geopolitical tensions and safe-haven demand continue. If political tensions ease or the Fed raises interest rates again, gold may stay under pressure. But if uncertainty and inflation persist, there are opportunities for an upward move.

The important thing is not to expect gold to fly at the same pace as in January. The market has become more realistic and sensitive to data. The movement now is slower but seems more sustainable. Some traders see opportunities at current levels, especially if they have a long-term investment horizon.