I've been paying close attention to the yen's trend lately. Honestly, this depreciation has been quite aggressive. As of the end of last month, USD/JPY has approached 159, and the effective exchange rate has hit a nearly 53-year low. Watching this trend, many friends have been asking me whether it's still a good time to buy yen.

First, let's talk about the reasons behind the yen's continuous decline. The most direct cause is the interest rate differential between the US and Japan—the US interest rates are still high, while the Bank of Japan is slow to raise rates. Although in December last year, the Bank of Japan raised its policy rate to 0.75%, the highest in nearly 30 years, it's still far below the US. This has led to a lot of arbitrage trading—borrowing low-interest yen to invest in high-yield US assets, resulting in a large sell-off of yen. Coupled with Japan's government fiscal expansion, rising import energy costs, and weak economic fundamentals, the yen has remained under pressure.

What does the future hold? The key still lies with the Bank of Japan. The market generally expects the central bank to raise interest rates in June, with the probability now up to 76%. If rates are actually raised to 1.0% in June, the US-Japan interest rate differential will narrow further, potentially attracting arbitrage capital back and benefiting the yen. But in the short term, USD/JPY is likely to fluctuate between 152 and 160.

So, can you buy yen now? Honestly, there are no clear reversal signals in the short term. JPMorgan even predicts the yen could fall to 164, and Société Générale believes it could reach 160 by the end of the year. However, in the long run, the yen will eventually find its own position. If it's just for travel and consumption, buying in installments might be a good option; but if you're aiming to profit from forex trading, you need to carefully consider the policy differences between the US and Japan and the overall global risk sentiment.

To be honest, the core of this market movement is still policy expectations. As long as the Bank of Japan's rate hike pace aligns with market expectations, the yen's downward trend could truly reverse. Otherwise, even if there's a short-term rebound, the long-term trend will still be under dollar pressure. I've been waiting for the June meeting; it feels like that could be a crucial turning point.