1.93 USD TON, do you dare to get on board?

Telegram just personally stepped in as the biggest validator, staking 2.2 million tokens, transaction fees cut to nearly zero, and in early May, it surged 36% to hit 2.8— but in the past week, it dropped 23%, back to around 1.9. RSI dropped from overbought 71 and turned downward, large holders started net outflows.

First look at the surface: fundamentals have been reborn, but the price is falling.

May 4-8, TON surged 36% in a single week, trading volume exploded by 324%, peaking above 2.8. The reason? Pavel Durov personally posted: Telegram officially replaced TON Foundation, becoming the network’s largest validator, and made TON the only blockchain infrastructure for Mini Apps.

But after the positive news, profit-taking flooded out wildly. It fell 23 over 7 days, currently bouncing between 1.90-2.00. Double top at high levels + MACD death cross, RSI falling back to neutral-weak—short-term selling pressure has not yet been fully released.

First thing: Telegram is no longer a “friend,” but a “parent.”

Previously, the relationship between TON and Telegram was “ambiguous”—officially no direct connection, community just having fun. Now? Telegram directly staked 2.2 million TON, becoming the largest validator on the network, and also integrated domain names, wallet protocols, and Mini Apps infrastructure.

Transaction fees dropped from 0.005 TON to 0.0005 TON, basically free.

Second thing: USDT supply + DeFi data are quietly climbing.

USDT on TON has exceeded $558k to $750 million, STON fi daily trading volume skyrocketed from $1.5 million to over $40 million.

Third thing: a critical technical signal has appeared.

During the early May surge, RSI hit 71 (overbought), then steadily declined to neutral. Recently, in the past hour, net outflow of $558k, large holders reducing positions. The daily chart shows a “double top at high levels,” if it cannot hold 1.90, next support is at 1.70-1.80.

One side:

- Telegram personally involved, 900 million user access

- Mini Apps processed 1.5 billion transactions in Q1, real use cases

- USDT supply + DeFi TVL rapidly growing

- Long-term target 3.0-3.5, even 5.0+

The other side:

- After positive news, a 23% correction, short-term selling pressure remains

- RSI overbought and falling, MACD death cross

- Centralization risk: Telegram dominates validators, institutional funds have concerns

- Macro CPI high, ETF outflows, altcoins generally under pressure

Key level 1.90, the last line of defense for bulls and bears.

Resistance above: 2.10 → 2.30 → 2.50-2.80

Support below: 1.85 → 1.70-1.80 (weekly neckline)

Short-term players:

Wait for around 1.90 to try long positions with light holdings, stop-loss at 1.85, target rebound to 2.10-2.20. Add positions if volume supports at 2.10.

Swing traders:

Wait for the daily close above 2.10 before entering, target 2.50-2.80, stop-loss at 1.85. Or place buy orders in the 1.70-1.80 range to catch a double bottom rebound.

Long-term believers:

Below 1.90, add a layer every 5% drop, build positions gradually. TON’s fundamentals have shifted from “concept” to “infrastructure,” with a target of 3.0-5.0+ by late 2026, stop-loss below 1.70.

TON now is like SOL in 2024—

Everyone’s criticizing “centralization,” but they don’t understand “users are traffic, traffic is value.”

Is 1.90 a golden pit or a foothill?

I choose to believe in the power of 900 million people. #Gate广场五月交易分享 #CLARITY法案参议院通关 $BTC $ETH $TON