CITIC Securities: AI + Petrochemicals might be a more suitable barbell structure this year

Mars Finance News, May 17 — China Securities Journal’s latest research report points out that AI+ energy and chemicals may be a more suitable “barbell” structure this year. This year’s AI+ energy and chemicals, similar to the AI+ dividends of 2023-2024 and AI+ resources in 2025, is expected to become a major source of supply-demand gaps and excess returns on an annual basis. In terms of allocation, the underlying logic remains a reassessment of China’s advantageous manufacturing industry pricing power, with the most representative sectors being new energy, chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and electrical equipment; continue to closely monitor the progress of domestically produced AI, as the “volume” logic on the hardware side still represents a significant divergence in expectations within the AI chain, and advances in domestic models are expected to drive both volume and price increases in cloud services. We are optimistic about domestic computing power and cloud platforms. Additionally, it is recommended to further increase holdings in some undervalued stocks, with a focus on brokerages and insurance. For cyclical price-increasing stocks, the prosperity of cyclical growth sectors like AIDC chains and lithium battery chains continues, but the current divergence in expectations has become very limited. It is advised to focus on the most supply-demand tight segments, as reflected in recent price increase frequency, mainly including copper-clad laminates, fiberglass, high-speed silicon, electronic special gases, optical fibers, MLCCs, chromium, lithium carbonate, rare earths, and carbon fibers. For traditional cyclical products, it is recommended to focus on stocks with genuine systemic capacity clearances or absolute supply constraints, such as phosphate chemicals, MDI, spandex, dyes, glyphosate, urea, rubber, and refrigerants. (Broad perspective observation)