It was reported that the UAE once strongly urged Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and other countries to participate in countering Iran, but was rejected and subsequently withdrew from OPEC.

The story behind the UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC is beginning to surface.

According to Bloomberg on May 15, behind the UAE’s exit from OPEC is a little-known diplomatic incident: UAE President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan had initially urged neighboring countries like Saudi Arabia to jointly counter Iran at the outbreak of the war. After being rejected, he chose to work alone with the U.S. and Israel, which led to a deep rupture in relations with Saudi Arabia.

On April 28, the UAE announced it would withdraw from OPEC and OPEC+ starting May 1, shocking the global energy markets. According to Global Times, UAE Energy Minister Suhail Mazrouei responded on social platform X on May 16, saying, “This is a sovereign strategic choice based on its long-term economic vision, evolving energy strength, and a lasting commitment to global energy security,” and emphasized, “This is not driven by political considerations and does not reflect any disagreements between the UAE and its partners.”

However, media reports citing multiple insiders present a very different picture.

Joint Counterattack Rejected, UAE Operates in Isolation

Reports indicate that after the U.S. and Israel launched military actions against Iran on February 28, the UAE President immediately engaged in a series of calls with Gulf leaders including Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman.

The core judgment of the UAE President was: Gulf states must collectively counter Iran to effectively deter it. In these calls, he reminded all parties that the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), established in 1981, was originally created to respond to the threat posed by the Iranian Islamic Revolution.

But Saudi Arabia’s response was: This is not our war.

According to a person familiar with Abu Dhabi’s decision-making, Gulf Arab colleagues explicitly told him, “This is not their war.” Saudi’s stance emphasized deterrence and defense, distancing itself from the U.S. and Israel’s offensive actions against Iran, and considered the UAE’s position as carrying “escalation risks.”

Qatar considered retaliating after Iran attacked the Ras Laffan LNG plant but ultimately chose to play a de-escalation and mediating role. Bahrain and Kuwait aligned with Saudi Arabia’s stance, opting to stay out of the conflict. Oman, with closer ties to Iran, was never viewed as a potential participant.

The UAE then acted alone. Reports indicate that from early March, without support from Gulf allies, the UAE launched limited strikes against Iran, with further attacks in April.

Iran Focuses on Striking the UAE

The UAE paid a heavy price for this stance.

According to data from the UAE authorities cited by The Paper, Iran launched approximately 550 ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as over 2,200 drones, targeting the UAE—more than the attacks on Israel.

The strikes severely impacted the UAE’s aviation, tourism, and real estate sectors, leading to widespread layoffs and salary cuts, damaging the UAE’s image as an international financial and tourism hub.

Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Relations Fracture

Saudi Arabia is not entirely uninvolved. Media reports citing informed officials say that in late March, Saudi launched attacks on Iran, then proactively informed Iran, leading to intensive diplomatic contacts and mutual understandings. Since then, direct strikes on Iranian targets within Saudi territory have significantly decreased.

Andreas Krieg, senior lecturer at King’s College London’s Security Studies Institute, pointed out that Saudi’s secret attacks “are aimed at avoiding publicly humiliating Iran to prevent retaliation,” and that Saudi prefers to use diplomatic channels through countries like Pakistan, Oman, and Qatar, “to clearly signal it has no intention of fighting alongside Israel.”

Saudi then shifted to promoting Pakistan’s mediation between the U.S. and Iran. The UAE was dissatisfied—reports suggest the UAE felt it was not sufficiently consulted in this diplomatic effort. The UAE immediately refused to extend a $3 billion loan to Pakistan in early April, with Saudi stepping in to fill the gap.

Yang Yulong, a special researcher at Lanzhou University’s Belt and Road Research Center, told The Paper, “The regional competition between the UAE and Saudi Arabia has already begun to form their own camps. Saudi is seeking closer cooperation with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, while the UAE, to counter Saudi and Turkish influence, is strengthening ties with the ‘I2U2 group’ (a quadrilateral alliance of the U.S., Israel, UAE, and India).”

OPEC Exit: Strategic Signal or Economic Decision?

The UAE’s withdrawal from OPEC is a concentrated reflection of these fractures.

On April 28, the UAE announced its exit from OPEC and OPEC+, which took effect on May 1. The Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries Organization confirmed this in a statement on May 3. In the OPEC+ system, the UAE is the fourth-largest oil producer after Saudi Arabia, Russia, and Iraq. Its withdrawal has substantial implications for the global energy supply landscape.

According to Global Times, the official statement from Energy Minister Mazrouei characterized this as a “sovereign strategic choice,” emphasizing “long-term economic vision” and “national interests,” and denying political motives.

Some media outlets interpret this decision within a broader context: longstanding dissatisfaction with Saudi-led OPEC, with the two countries supporting opposing sides in conflicts in Yemen and Sudan, and direct economic competition. The disagreements over Iran are seen as the final straw that broke the camel’s back.

Risk Warning and Disclaimer

        The market carries risks; investments should be cautious. This article does not constitute personal investment advice and does not consider individual users' specific investment goals, financial situations, or needs. Users should consider whether any opinions, viewpoints, or conclusions in this article are suitable for their particular circumstances. Invest at your own risk.