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Yesterday, I noticed that the gold price (XAUUSD) was fighting against extremely heavy selling pressure. The price touched $4,578 per ounce, but it looked like it was being pushed down by several factors at the same time. The Fed had a split vote: 4 voices wanted to keep interest rates high for longer. In other words, the market is starting to realize that interest rate cuts probably won’t come as quickly as hoped.
Another issue I’m watching is that the Brent oil price has surged past $117 per barrel, because the UAE has withdrawn from OPEC and Trump has confirmed the plan to surround/block Iran. At first, I thought that expensive oil should be good for gold, but not this time—because the market is more afraid of inflation. When inflation is high, the Fed has to keep interest rates higher for longer, and the U.S. dollar strengthens. A stronger dollar puts pressure on gold.
The funny thing is that Powell also announced that he will not resign from the board even though he’s already stepped down as chairman. It seems like he’s creating uncertainty for the market. As for gold-price analysis, technically, the RSI has plunged into the oversold zone and is starting to turn upward. Combined with a clear Bullish Crossover on the Stoch, the signals suggest that a short-term rebound could be possible.
But I think tonight could be a game-changer, because the U.S. will release Q1 GDP and Core PCE at 19:30. If GDP comes in below expectations, gold could surge, because the market will expect the Fed to cut interest rates. But if the data comes in strong, gold is ready to break down and fall through the support level of $4,553.
For trading, I see risk as greater than opportunity right now. If you want to play it safe, wait for the price to bounce up to around $4,600 and then sell, with a target at $4,553. For anyone who wants to trade the bounce, buy around $4,553 - $4,560 and sell at $4,605, but you must stop immediately if it breaks below $4,545. Gold-price analysis isn’t easy at the moment, because many variables are playing at the same time.