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Next week's white silver market outlook — Is it time to buy the dip?

Last week, international spot silver sharply retreated from a high of $89.36, touching a low of $76, with intraday volatility exceeding 15%. Market sentiment quickly shifted between optimism and panic. For next week, I believe a rebound is highly likely.

Reasons for the market decline

1. Rising expectations of interest rate hikes, short-term suppression of silver prices

The unexpectedly strong U.S. April inflation data has become the main trigger for recent silver corrections. Data shows that U.S. April CPI increased by 3.8% year-on-year, and PPI soared to 6.0% year-on-year, both far exceeding market expectations. This data completely shattered the market’s hope for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year and even sparked concerns about rate hikes. Currently, the market’s probability of a Fed rate hike in June has risen from less than 10% at the beginning of the month to 35%. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has climbed to nearly a one-year high, and the dollar index continues to strengthen.

2. Speculative funds exit, increasing volatility

A notable feature of the recent silver market is the persistent absence of speculative forces. Position data shows that speculative long positions in silver remain relatively low, forming a clear divergence from price trends. As of mid-May, global silver ETF holdings have decreased by nearly 700 tons since the beginning of the year, with net outflows reaching a record high. The exit of speculative funds has reduced market liquidity and increased price volatility.

3. Geopolitical factors

As U.S.-Iran negotiations stall, reports of the U.S. resuming military strikes on Iran have emerged again. Oil prices surged accordingly, with WTI crude oil breaking above $105 again. Global inflation expectations rose once more, putting pressure on gold and silver prices to correct.

Future market outlook

From a technical perspective, silver prices have broken below short-term moving average support, and the MACD indicator has shown a death cross, indicating that bearish momentum dominates. Next week, key support levels are around $75–76. If broken, prices could further decline to the medium-term support zone of $70–72. Resistance levels are at $82–84; if effectively broken, there is potential to challenge previous highs again.

On the news front, the U.S.-Iran situation may still see fluctuations. Given the recent pattern of negotiations and talks, if news of a thaw emerges again, gold and silver prices could rebound quickly. The main trend next week is expected to be oscillation and rebound. Family members can consider light positions for buying the dip, with stop-loss set below $74. $XAGUSD $XBRUSD $EURUSD