#TradFi交易分享挑战

The Nikkei 225 Index continued its strong uptrend from 2023 into 2026, becoming a brilliant star among the world’s major stock indexes. JPN225 not only regained its highest level since the burst of the bubble economy, but also kept setting new historical records, drawing widespread attention from investors around the globe. This round of repricing in the Japanese stock market is not short-term speculative hype, but the result of multiple structural tailwinds resonating together.

The primary driving force behind the rise of the Nikkei 225 is the steady advancement of corporate governance reforms in Japan. In recent years, the Tokyo Stock Exchange has strongly pushed listed companies to improve capital efficiency and enhance shareholder returns, requiring companies whose price-to-book ratio has remained below 1 for the long term to submit specific improvement plans. Under these policy guidelines, Japanese companies have stepped up stock buybacks, increased dividend payout ratios, and actively unwind cross-shareholdings, leading to a significant improvement in return on equity. This wave of governance reform has fundamentally changed the valuation discount that the Japanese stock market has had for a long time, attracting a large amount of overseas long-term funds to return.

At the same time, Japan’s nominal economic growth is returning. After decades of deflation, Japan is finally experiencing a moderate but sustained re-inflation. The steady rise in the consumer price index has changed the expectations of residents and businesses, accelerating nominal wage growth and strengthening corporate pricing power, forming a positive feedback loop. The explosive growth in inbound tourism has also injected strong momentum into the services industry and consumer sectors. In addition, while Japan’s relative weakness of the yen is unfavorable for import costs, it greatly boosts the competitiveness of export companies. Heavyweights such as Toyota and Sony have seen a significant increase in profits in overseas markets, which looks even more striking when converted back into yen.

Geopolitical factors are also quietly reshaping Japan’s position in global industrial chains. Against the backdrop of supply chain restructuring, Japan’s strategic value as a hub for advanced manufacturing and technology is being re-recognized. TSMC’s large-scale wafer fab being built in Kumamoto has already begun operations, driving a surge of investment in the semiconductor equipment and materials sectors, and Japan’s semiconductor industry chain is entering a new round of favorable conditions. The expansion of these high-end manufacturing industries provides a solid foundation for long-term growth for the constituent companies of the Nikkei 225.

From a technical perspective, the weekly chart of JPN225 has formed a textbook-like rising channel, with a clear and steady trend. Each time the price pulls back to the channel’s midline or the 20-week moving average, it receives effective support, and then it continues upward to set new highs. On the daily chart level, the moving average system shows a near-perfect bullish divergence and bullish spread, and the MACD keeps running above the zero line. Although the RSI has remained at a high level for a long time, there has not yet been an obvious top-divergence signal from overbought conditions, and the strong-characteristic is clear. At present, after a short-term pause and consolidation, the index is attempting to break through a new integer-level psychological barrier.

Of course, risks also need to be faced. If the Bank of Japan raises interest rates beyond expectations and leads to a sharp appreciation of the yen, export-oriented heavyweight stocks will be hit significantly, which could trigger a correction at the index level. In addition, a slowdown in the global economy may also affect Japanese companies’ earnings through external demand channels. In terms of trading, trend traders can continue to follow the trend, setting stop-losses below the 20-day moving average or below the most recent pullback low; contrarian traders need to patiently wait for an explicit trend reversal signal before considering entry. Do you believe in the long-term bull-case logic for Japan’s stock market? Feel free to share your views.
$JPN225 ‌