🚨 A not-so-great signal: the 30-year U.S. Treasury yield surged to 5.114%, hitting the highest level since July 2007.

At the same time, the 10-year rose to 4.54%, and the 5-year to 4.31%.
This means the market no longer believes the Fed will cut rates in 2026, and is starting to worry that the U.S. will continue to issue debt aggressively in the coming years, possibly using higher inflation, a weaker dollar, and higher nominal interest rates to gradually dilute the debt.
This actually has a significant impact on global asset pricing:
Long-term bonds above 5% imply that all risk assets worldwide need to be revalued.
Tech stocks, AI, crypto, private equity/venture capital, high-growth assets—these are essentially games of discounting future cash flows. The higher the risk-free rate, the more expensive the forward narrative, and the harder it is to justify valuations.
Yesterday’s decline is also somewhat related to this.
But it has a subtle effect on bitcoin:native:
Because if long-term bond yields rise due to a strong economy and an overly hawkish Fed, short-term pressure on BTC will definitely increase;
But if long-term bond yields rise because the market begins to doubt the long-term sustainability of U.S. fiscal policy, it could actually strengthen the underlying narrative for BTC.
In short, it’s a very paradoxical and difficult-to-judge situation!