Is Putin in trouble? A former Russian high-ranking official's open letter: the elites are dividing, GDP is halved, approval ratings are dropping, and the system is collapsing—countdown has begun

A former high-ranking Kremlin official anonymously wrote to The Economist, revealing that Russia’s elite are subtly distancing themselves from Putin. Over the past three years, the government has confiscated approximately $60 billion in private assets; soaring inflation, halved GDP forecasts, and Putin’s approval rating dropping from over 80% before the war to 65.6% indicate a changing situation.
(Background: Russia plans to “completely ban gasoline exports” starting April 1! To prevent domestic fuel prices from spiraling out of control, potentially fueling global inflation)
(Additional context: Iran’s large-scale protests escalate: thousands arrested, internet cut overnight, exiled prince calls for uprising… imminent crackdown?)

Table of Contents

Toggle

• $60 Billion Asset Vanished: The End of Oligarchs’ Sanctuary
• Economic Data Speak: Inflation, Deficits, and GDP All Decline
• Putin Retreats to Bunkers to Manage War, Abandons Governance
• Resistance Won’t Erupt Tomorrow, But Corruption Is Accelerating

A former Kremlin insider recently anonymously contributed to The Economist, pointing out that officials from Moscow and regional governors, as well as business leaders, now refer to Putin in their descriptions of his actions not as “we,” but as “he.” This almost unnoticed grammatical shift is a rare sign of centrifugal forces within Russia’s power core.

The former official wrote:

“Ironically, Putin launched this war to consolidate power and preserve the system he built. But since the conflict began, Russians are for the first time starting to imagine a future without him.”

$60 Billion Asset Vanished: The End of Oligarchs’ Sanctuary

One of the direct causes of elite disaffection is the complete collapse of property protection mechanisms. The official estimates that over the past three years, the Kremlin has confiscated about $60 billion (roughly NT$1.9 trillion) in private assets, some nationalized directly, others transferred to Putin confidants.

The article states: “The elite are not suddenly yearning for rule of law or democracy. But even loyalists to the regime desire fair rules and institutions to resolve disputes.” Previously, Russian billionaires could rely on Western legal systems to safeguard their overseas wealth; but with exit bans and Western sanctions blocking the way, this escape route has been entirely closed.

Economic Data Speak: Inflation, Deficits, and GDP All Decline

The toll of the battlefield is also quantifiably eroding Russia’s economic resilience. The Central Bank of Russia forecasts inflation will reach 5.0%–5.5% by 2026, and has had to raise the benchmark interest rate to a high of 21%, sharply worsening debt burdens for businesses and borrowers, with rising defaults and warnings of financial crises.

Growth prospects are equally bleak. Deputy Prime Minister Novakov has sharply revised down the 2026 GDP growth forecast from 1.3% to 0.4%, and the budget deficit for the first two months of 2026 has already accumulated to 5.99 trillion rubles. Military strikes in Ukraine have also caused at least 40% of Russia’s refining capacity to be lost, dealing a structural blow to energy revenues.

To further control capital outflows, Putin has banned the export of gold bars over 100 grams starting May 1, 2026.

Under the pressure of high interest rates and inflation, public sentiment has shifted, reflected in official figures: polls by Russia’s state-owned polling agencies show Putin’s approval rating has fallen from over 80% before the war to 65.6%; other reports indicate trust in him has dropped further to 29.5%.

Putin Retreats to Bunkers to Manage War, Abandons Governance

Meanwhile, Putin himself is rapidly retreating from the public eye. According to sources cited by the Financial Times, Putin now spends 70% of his time in underground bunkers managing the war on a micro level, highly alert to coups or assassination attempts by Ukrainian drones; the remaining 30% is spent on other government affairs, including economic management.

The former official describes that the regime has ceased selling any narrative of “national revival” or “modernization” domestically, leaving only repression, censorship, and control. The government tightly blocks the internet, attempting to hide casualty figures and economic hardships, but this has sparked strong backlash among ordinary citizens.

The implicit social contract in Russia—“as long as you don’t touch politics, you can enjoy private life”—has ended. “People are asked to show loyalty, but no one is told what future that loyalty serves,” the official wrote.

Resistance Won’t Erupt Tomorrow, But Corruption Is Accelerating

Nevertheless, the official warns against over-optimism: the state still tightly controls repression machinery and fear mechanisms, and rebellion is not imminent. The linguistic disconnection does not equate to political action.

His conclusion points directly to systemic contradictions: “As long as Putin remains in power, this system can continue to operate. But every move he makes to preserve and expand his power accelerates the decay of the system itself.”

As rule-based global order gradually recedes, Russia’s long-standing strategy of manipulating international institutions like the UN Security Council is shrinking. The waning Western influence further strips Russia of its long-held “adversary,” plunging it into an identity crisis. Every new chain of shackles Putin enforces for self-preservation is costing Russia an unknown and possibly uncalculated price.