$78,000 BTC, did you cut your losses?

ETF outflows of $635 million in a single day, the largest withdrawal since the end of January; BlackRock suddenly transferred 3,900 BTC to exchanges; Canada plans to ban 4,000 ATMs—just now, the price dropped below $79,000, touching a low of $78,674.
Globally, everyone is shouting "The bear is back," but Strategy's trading volume hit a record yesterday, and Abu Dhabi is still adding to their position.

First, look at the surface: bearish news piling up, price teetering.

In the past 24 hours, it fell 2%, three attempts since May to break $82,000 were rejected, with upper shadows like needles stabbing into bullish traders’ hearts.
24-hour trading volume expanded to $38 billion, but it’s all sell orders.
MACD histogram continues to expand negatively, and the price broke below the lower Bollinger Band.

First thing: ETF funds are retreating massively, but institutions are quietly accumulating.

On May 13, U.S. stock Bitcoin spot ETF had a net outflow of $635 million in a single day, the largest since the end of January.
BlackRock personally transferred 3,900 BTC to exchanges, directly shocking the market.

Strategy’s record-breaking daily volume on May 14 suggests they are still adding to their holdings.
Abu Dhabi increased their ETF holdings by 16%.

Second thing: macroeconomics is the biggest ghost story.

April CPI year-over-year 3.7-3.8%, exceeding expectations; oil prices surged, geopolitical tensions increased.
The Federal Reserve has almost zero probability of rate cuts in 2026, and the market is pricing in a 37% chance of rate hikes.

Third thing: fundamentals are so clean it’s not like a bull market.

MVRV Z-Score is only 0.9-1.0, compared to 7-12 at previous market peaks.
Realized Price is about $635M-$61K, with a current premium of only 40%, whereas past cycles were 250-300%.
Puell Multiple is 0.8-0.9, miners are accumulating rather than selling.

On one side:

- ETF outflows of $635 million in a day, short-term panic
- Three rejections at $82,000, technical pressure
- High inflation + hawkish Fed
- BlackRock transferring 3,900 BTC to exchanges

On the other side:

- MVRV only 1.0, far from bubble territory
- Miners accumulating, corporate treasuries expanding
- Strategy and Abu Dhabi are buying real gold and silver
- Long-term HODL ratio at a historic high, exchange balances continuously decreasing

Key level: $78,000, the last line of defense for bulls.

Resistance above: $80,000 → $82,000 (the life-and-death line after three rejections) → $85,000-$90,000

Support below: $77,000-$77,500 (Fibonacci 0.618 + bull market support zone) → $74,000 → $72,000

Short-term traders:

Wait for a pullback to $77,500-$78,500, buy in tranches, stop-loss at $77,000, first target $80,000, second target $82,000.
If $82,000 breaks and closes above, add to positions, set stop-loss at $80,000, aim for $85,000-$90,000.

Swing traders:

Wait until the daily chart reclaims $80,000 with increased volume before entering.
Don’t cut losses at $78,000—if you do, it’s over, and in a couple of weeks, you’ll regret it.

Long-term believers:

Invest blindly below $78,000.
You don’t need to know where the bottom is; just remember: when MVRV hits 1.0, don’t buy.
Would you wait until MVRV hits 7 to chase?

BTC now is just like March 2020—

Everyone was shouting “The pandemic is collapsing,” but that was the bottom.
$78,000 BTC, you’re panicking, institutions are buying.