Here is a long-term holder guy, and what he says seems reasonable, but if you don't plan to hold long-term and add leverage, this obviously isn't suitable. Back then, many people said cherish your $80k Bitcoin, but it dropped to $59,800, so it varies from person to person. As long as your leverage can withstand approaching zero, you'll definitely come out ahead, but the timing is uncertain.

Did you cut your position at $78,000 BTC?

ETF outflows hit $635 million in a single day, the largest withdrawal since the end of January; BlackRock suddenly transferred 3,900 BTC to exchanges; Canada is about to ban 4,000 ATMs—just now, the price fell below $79,000, touching a low of $78,674. The world is shouting "The bear is back," but Strategy's trading volume yesterday hit a record, and Abu Dhabi is still adding positions.

First, look at the surface: bearish news piling up, price teetering.

In the past 24 hours, it dropped 2%, three attempts since May to hit $82,000 were rejected, with upper shadows like needles stabbing bulls' hearts. 24-hour trading volume expanded to $38 billion, but all sell orders. MACD histogram continues to expand negatively, and the price broke below the lower Bollinger Band.

First thing: ETF funds are retreating en masse, but institutions are secretly accumulating.

On May 13, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $635 million in a single day, the largest since the end of January. BlackRock personally transferred 3,900 BTC into exchanges, shocking the market.

Strategy's record trading volume on May 14 suggests they are still adding. Abu Dhabi increased ETF holdings by 16%.

Second thing: macroeconomics is the biggest ghost story.

April CPI year-over-year 3.7-3.8%, exceeding expectations; oil prices surged, geopolitical tensions increased. The Federal Reserve has almost zeroed out the chance of rate cuts in 2026, and the market is pricing in a 37% chance of rate hikes.

Third thing: fundamentals are so clean it doesn't look like a bull market.

MVRV Z-Score is only 0.9-1.0, compared to 7-12 at historical peaks. Realized Price is about $635M-$61K, with a current premium of only 40%, whereas past cycles were 250-300%. Puell Multiple is 0.8-0.9, miners are accumulating rather than selling.

On one side:

- ETF outflows of $635 million daily, short-term panic

- Three rejections at $82,000, technical pressure

- High inflation + hawkish Fed

- BlackRock transferring 3,900 BTC to exchanges

On the other side:

- MVRV only 1.0, far from bubble territory

- Miners accumulating, corporate treasuries expanding

- Strategy and Abu Dhabi are buying real gold

- Long-term HODL ratio at a historic high, exchange balances decreasing

Key level: $78,000, the last line of defense for bulls.

Resistance above: $80,000 → $82,000 (the life-and-death line after three rejections) → $85,000-$90,000

Support below: $77,000-$77,500 (Fibonacci 0.618 + bull market support zone) → $74,000 → $72,000

Short-term players:

Wait for a dip to $77,500-$78,500 to buy in batches, stop-loss at $77,000, first target $80,000, second target $82,000. Break and close above $82,000, add positions, set stop-loss at $80,000, look for $85,000-$90,000.

Swing traders:

Wait for the daily chart to re-close above $80,000 with increased volume before entering. Don't cut at $78,000—if you do, you'll regret it in a couple of weeks.

Long-term believers:

Invest blindly below $78,000. You don't need to know where the bottom is; just remember: don't buy when MVRV is 1.0, or will you wait until MVRV hits 7?

BTC now is just like March 2020—

Everyone was shouting "The pandemic is collapsing," but that was the bottom. At $78,000 BTC, you're panicking, institutions are buying. #Gate广场五月交易分享 #CLARITY法案参议院通关 $BTC $ETH