#TradFi交易分享挑战

While analyzing the short-term fluctuations of USDCNH, it is necessary to broaden our perspective and observe a slow but steady historical process—RMB internationalization. The acceleration of this process is fundamentally changing the supply and demand structure of the US dollar against offshore RMB.

In recent years, China has signed a series of local currency settlement agreements with major resource-rich countries such as Russia, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia. By 2025, the proportion of RMB settlement in China's cross-border trade has exceeded 30%, more than doubling compared to three years ago. An increasing number of international traders are beginning to accept and hold RMB, directly creating incremental demand for offshore RMB. Moreover, the digital RMB cross-border payment bridge project has moved from pilot testing to limited-scale application, covering several ASEAN countries and the Middle East, significantly reducing the friction and time costs of cross-border payments, and markedly increasing the stickiness of RMB usage in Belt and Road trade.

Meanwhile, global central banks are steadily increasing their holdings of RMB assets. According to IMF data, RMB's share in the world's foreign exchange reserves has surpassed 3.5%. Although the absolute value remains far below the US dollar and euro, its growth rate is the fastest. More importantly, Middle Eastern sovereign funds such as Saudi Arabia have begun investing part of their oil revenues into Chinese bonds and stocks. These long-term strategic investors are insensitive to short-term interest rate fluctuations, and their participation provides a more stable ballast for the RMB exchange rate.

These changes are not achieved overnight, but gradual accumulation will eventually lead to qualitative shifts. When the critical point of RMB internationalization arrives, the supply and demand pattern of offshore RMB may undergo a fundamental transformation, and the pricing logic of USDCNH will no longer solely follow the US-China interest rate differential but will more reflect the genuine demand for RMB as an international reserve and settlement currency. Of course, this process will be long and winding, with hurdles such as cautious capital account opening, convergence of onshore and offshore prices, and the independence of monetary policy.

From a technical analysis perspective, the monthly chart of USDCNH shows that the long-term downtrend line was broken in 2023, and the market is currently undergoing a rebound after a long-term bottoming process. However, this rebound is more of a correction from previous overselling rather than a trend reversal. For long-term investors, the valuation advantages of RMB assets and the interest rate differential disadvantages are a trade-off to consider. As internationalization progresses, the influence of interest rate differentials on the exchange rate may gradually diminish. How do you think the progress of RMB internationalization over the next five years will impact the exchange rate? Looking forward to your forward-looking insights.
$USDCNH