#TradFi交易分享挑战

The USD to offshore RMB exchange rate trend is, in essence, a direct reflection of the macro policy game between the world’s second- and first-largest economies. Entering 2026, as the Federal Reserve’s rate-cut path repeatedly shifts and China’s pressure to maintain steady growth continues, USDCNH is showing a step-by-step gradual upward drift, with every pullback seen as a window for bulls to re-enter.

The China–US interest-rate spread is the key factor driving this round of RMB weakness. Although the Federal Reserve has started cutting rates from its peak, the US policy rate remains above 4%, while the People’s Bank of China continues to guide market rates lower to support the recovery of the economy. The one-year MLF rate has already fallen to below 2%, and the 10-year government bond yield is also hovering around the historical low of 2.2%. Judging purely from the spread, the appeal of holding RMB-denominated assets is clearly weaker. Some arbitrage funds and exporters’ willingness to convert proceeds into RMB are being held back, which creates persistent downward pressure on the RMB.

However, the intention of the People’s Bank of China to keep the exchange rate basically stable has never wavered. A closer look shows that whenever USDCNH rapidly approaches the 7.25–7.30 range, the official midpoint rate is significantly stronger than market expectations. In the offshore market, large Chinese institutional players appear to sell USD, and the issuance frequency of offshore central bank bills increases, effectively tightening offshore RMB liquidity. This “bottom-line management” strategy is very clear: it allows the market to fluctuate both ways within a reasonable range, but it never allows a one-sided depreciation expectation to become self-reinforcing. This also explains why the USDCNH trend shows a “move forward two steps, retreat one” slow-rising pattern, rather than the sharp depreciation seen with other emerging market currencies.

From the current account perspective, China’s trade surplus set a new historical high again in 2025, and it remained at extremely high levels in the first quarter of 2026. Theoretically, this should support the RMB. The problem, however, is that behind the huge surplus, companies’ willingness to convert currency remains persistently weak. Because RMB interest rates are relatively low, companies are more inclined to hold US dollar deposits to earn higher interest income. A large portion of the trade surplus is therefore not converted into RMB demand in a timely manner, but instead accumulates in offshore USD accounts. Once this expectation reverses and the suppressed conversion demand is released in a concentrated way, it will generate a tremendous appreciation force—an unsheathed sword hanging over the bears.

Technically speaking, on the USDCNH daily chart, there is a slow upward channel. The lower boundary of the channel is around 7.10, and the upper boundary is around 7.28. The MACD indicator shows signs of a bearish divergence at the top, but the moving-average system remains in a bullish configuration, and the price receives solid support near the 20-day moving average. In terms of trading, chasing gains needs particular caution. It is more suitable to look for short-term long opportunities near the lower boundary of the channel, or alternatively wait for the market reaction after a breakout above the 7.30 policy cap before making a decision. Do you think the RMB’s future trend will be upward? Feel free to write your view in the comments section.
$USDCNH ‌