Brent crude oil still hasn't broken out of its directional confusion as we enter 2026, with prices continuously oscillating within a wide range of $75 to $85 since Q4 last year. On the surface, oil prices seem to be stagnating, but beneath the water, the game is intensely fierce, and internal disagreements within the OPEC+ alliance are becoming the biggest variable affecting supply-side expectations.

Currently, OPEC+ faces a typical "prisoner's dilemma." To support oil prices, the alliance has implemented multiple rounds of voluntary production cuts since 2023, with Saudi Arabia and Russia bearing the majority of the additional reductions. However, ongoing production cuts have directly led to market share being eroded by non-OPEC+ oil producers such as the United States, Brazil, and Guyana. U.S. shale oil production hit a new record in 2025, surpassing 14 million barrels per day, with exports also rising, continuously diluting OPEC+'s efforts to cut supply. What further fuels internal anxiety is that some members, like Iraq and Kazakhstan, due to fiscal pressures and domestic production impulses, have failed to meet their reduction targets, with overproduction issues persisting.

The latest OPEC+ ministerial meeting ended without results. Market expectations had been for an announcement of further extension of cuts, but the final communiqué was vague, merely stating that "adjustments will be made flexibly based on market conditions," which is interpreted as a lack of consensus within the group. Some sources reveal that certain African members have privately expressed dissatisfaction with continuing cuts, believing that the loss of market share has already exceeded the fiscal benefits brought by higher prices. If this rift continues to widen, the worst-case scenario is the expectation of a "dissolution of the production-cutting alliance." Once the market begins to price in this risk, oil prices could plummet sharply in a very short period.

Of course, supply-side factors are not all bearish. Although U.S. shale oil production remains high, its growth has noticeably slowed. DUC (Drilled but Uncompleted) well inventories have fallen to low levels, and the cost of new wells continues to rise due to inflation and labor shortages. The discipline in shale oil capital expenditure is also much stronger than in previous cycles, with listed oil companies preferring to return cash to shareholders rather than blindly expanding production. This suggests that non-OPEC+ supply growth will peak and decline over the next few quarters, providing OPEC+ with some breathing room.

From a technical perspective, the XBRUSD daily chart shows a large symmetrical triangle consolidation pattern, with resistance at around $84 and support near $77. Prices are converging toward the triangle's apex, indicating a breakout is imminent. The weekly MACD runs close to the zero line, with the signal line flat, suggesting both bullish and bearish momentum are building. A confirmed breakout above $84 could target $88 or even $92; if $77 is broken, prices could quickly fall to $72 to find the next support. Currently, traders should closely watch the breakout direction of the triangle and follow the trend once confirmed, as the risk-reward ratio will be highly attractive. Do you think OPEC+ can still stay united to support oil prices? Feel free to share your thoughts.