Just noticed: The yen remains fairly stable, while USD/JPY drifts just below 156. The Bank of Japan is making no concessions—hawkish signals and constant intervention threats keep the pair firmly in check.

What surprises me: The US dollar should actually be under pressure because peace talks between the USA and Iran are allegedly making progress. Trump talked about advances yesterday, and the White House is said to be close to a deal. But traders don’t really trust that—and that’s understandable, since the gaps over Iran’s nuclear program are simply too large.

The real story, however, is the divergence between the BoJ and the Fed. While the BoJ signals further rate hikes, the Fed is more likely to lower expectations. That makes the JPY attractive, and rumors of massive interventions (allegedly up to 35 billion dollars last week) reinforce that. As long as this doesn’t change, USD/JPY will struggle to move meaningfully above this level.

Momentum just isn’t there. The yen benefits from the combination of BoJ hawkishness and fears of intervention—that’s a strong foundation for the next few days.