The "illusion" of calm in the global oil market: Is the next surge already countdown?

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May 14, New York Mercantile Exchange closed. Brent crude oil closed at about $105 per barrel, almost no different from the previous week.

However, on the other side of the Earth, at least 210 oil tankers are still docked where they are—they have been sitting there for more than two months.

This is the most contradictory picture in the oil market in May 2026: on one side, a physical supply disruption lasting more than 70 days, with shutdowns from oil-producing countries in the Gulf exceeding 10 million barrels per day; on the other side, international oil prices are steady.

Why didn’t Brent rush toward $150, as everyone expected?

Why, in the face of such severe physical shortages, did prices fall back from the $138 peak in April? And how long can this calm last?

The current calm in the oil market is not an equilibrium—it is a “false appearance” created by several temporary, unsustainable factors.

And each of these “false appearances” is running on a countdown.

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