Copper is currently one of the most exciting commodities on the market, and not just because of the extreme price movements we've seen in recent months. The metal drives the global economy — from the construction industry to electronics, renewable energy, and electric mobility. Copper is needed everywhere.

Looking at the current situation, the price for 1 ton of copper has been truly remarkable over the past year and a half. In early July 2025, the metal reached an all-time high of about $5.84 per pound, which was approximately $12,875 per ton. At that time, it was mainly driven by the announcement of US tariffs. Since then, the market has calmed down somewhat, but prices remain at elevated levels.

When I look at the long-term development, it can be divided into three phases. From 2001 to 2011, there was a massive boom — China's accession to the WTO triggered an unprecedented wave of infrastructure investments. The price rose from about $0.68 to over $4.49 per pound. That’s a tenfold increase in ten years. Then came 2011 to 2016, the sobering period. China invested less, many new mines caused oversupply, and the price halved. Since 2016, it has been rising again, and that trend has continued to this day.

What actually drives the copper price? First, there are demand factors. China is the elephant in the room — the country consumes about half of the world's copper. When China's economy is booming, copper prices also rise. Then, supply factors play a role. The production volumes of major copper mines directly influence supply. For example, a supply growth of 2.2 percent was forecasted for 2025.

A big wildcard is the energy transition. Renewable energies require four to twelve times more copper than fossil fuels. Electric vehicles need about three times as much copper as traditional combustion engines. The International Energy Agency expects renewables to account for 40 percent of global copper demand by 2040. That’s enormous growth potential.

Then there are macroeconomic factors. The US dollar exchange rate is important — a strong dollar makes copper more expensive for foreign buyers. The Fed’s monetary policy also plays a role. Higher interest rates typically put downward pressure on commodity prices. And of course, speculation. Major commodity traders can trigger significant short-term price movements, as we saw with the tariff announcement.

Those wanting to invest in 1 ton of copper or proportionally smaller amounts have several options. Futures are the classic instrument for experienced traders — LME contracts with 25 tons or COMEX contracts with 25,000 pounds. For smaller positions, there are also micro-contracts. Then, there are ETCs that track the copper price. These are cost-effective, with fees around 0.45 to 0.49 percent per year. Shares of mining companies like BHP, Southern Copper, Freeport-McMoRan, or Rio Tinto are another option — these companies benefit disproportionately from rising copper prices since most of their costs are fixed.

CFDs are interesting for short-term traders but require experience and risk management. Buying physical copper is impractical for retail investors — storage, transportation, and insurance quickly become cost factors.

Regarding strategy, I recommend paying attention to trends. When a 50-day moving average crosses above a 200-day moving average, it’s often a good entry signal. Fundamental data are also important — Chinese industrial data, Fed decisions, tariff reports. These are the main price drivers.

Risk management is also crucial. A position should never exceed five percent of trading capital. Stop-loss orders two to three percent below the entry price are standard. And diversification is essential — don’t put everything into copper but include it as part of a balanced portfolio.

As for the future: forecasts before the tariff announcement ranged between $9,000 and $11,000 per ton for 2025. Goldman Sachs estimated around $10,000, JP Morgan over $11,000 for 2026, and UBS was even more optimistic. Given geopolitical uncertainties and the energy transition dynamics, copper could remain quite interesting in the medium term. The big questions are how US trade policy develops, how resilient the global economy remains, and whether copper producers can expand their output. These factors will be decisive for the price of 1 ton of copper in the coming years.