Recently, someone asked me if they can buy euros. I think this is a good question because many people are uncertain about the future prospects of the euro.

Let's start with the conclusion: I believe the euro's performance should be somewhat stronger by 2026, but if you're expecting to make big profits, you might need to adjust your expectations. Let me review the historical context first, so it's easier to understand why the euro is worth paying attention to now.

Looking back over the past 20 years, the euro has experienced several key moments. During the 2008 financial crisis, the euro against the US dollar surged to a high of 1.6038 before falling steadily. By January 2017, it had dropped to a low of 1.034, when the eurozone debt crisis was essentially resolved, and the euro was severely undervalued, leading to a rebound. In 2018, it rose again to 1.2556, but with the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and the eurozone economy slowing, it declined again. The worst was in September 2022, when the euro fell to 0.9536, hitting a 20-year low amid the Russia-Ukraine war, energy crisis, and soaring inflation, which battered the euro.

But looking at recent trends is quite interesting. In early 2025, the euro briefly fell to around 1.02, then quickly rebounded, reaching a high of 1.08 by the end of the year. Entering 2026, the euro against the dollar even briefly broke through the 1.20 barrier for the first time since June 2021. Although there was a slight pullback afterward, it still stayed above 1.14. The logic behind this rebound is actually quite clear.

The first reason is the loss of confidence in the dollar. After Trump took office, he repeatedly attacked the Federal Reserve's independence and threatened allies with tariffs. These policy fluctuations caused investors to start "selling the US," leading to capital outflows from dollar assets and naturally boosting the euro.

The second reason is the divergence in monetary policies between the US and Europe. The Federal Reserve is expected to continue cutting interest rates, while the European Central Bank (ECB), due to relatively stable inflation and supported by fiscal stimulus, is expected to keep rates steady or even adopt a more cautious stance. This narrows the interest rate differential, reducing the attractiveness of the dollar and making euro assets more appealing to international capital.

The third reason is fiscal stimulus in the eurozone. Especially Germany's large-scale fiscal expansion plans, if successfully implemented, could improve growth expectations in the eurozone, providing support for the euro to rebound to the 1.20–1.25 range against the dollar.

However, I must be honest: whether the euro can remain strong over the next five years depends on several variables to watch.

One is geopolitical tensions and energy prices. If tensions ease quickly and energy prices fall, it would be a big positive for the eurozone, significantly improving trade conditions and reducing corporate costs, which would help the euro appreciate in the medium term. Conversely, if conflicts persist or escalate, stagflation risks will increase, forcing the ECB into a policy dilemma, and capital might shift to the dollar for safety, putting downward pressure on the euro.

Another factor is the economic performance of the eurozone itself. In Q4 2024, eurozone GDP grew almost zero, with Germany's economy contracting for two consecutive years, and France's manufacturing activity experiencing its worst decline since May 2020. Consumer and business confidence remain low, and manufacturing continues to be sluggish—these are concerns. But if Germany's fiscal stimulus can effectively boost the economy, conditions could gradually improve.

So, can you buy euros now? My answer is: if you are optimistic about narrowing the US-Europe interest rate gap, gradual improvement in the eurozone economy, and easing geopolitical risks, then the euro is worth considering. But if these assumptions change, the euro could also face pressure.

There are actually many ways to invest in euros. You can open a foreign exchange account through a commercial bank in Taiwan for trading, but there may be capital limits, usually only allowing long positions. For more flexible operations, you might consider international forex brokers or CFD platforms, which have lower capital requirements and are especially suitable for small investors. Some also trade forex through securities firms or futures exchanges, depending on personal preference and risk tolerance.

Overall, I expect the euro's performance in 2026 to be somewhat better, especially if the Federal Reserve continues to cut rates, the US-Europe interest rate differential narrows further, and energy prices fall. The rebound momentum for the euro could become more evident. In the long run, supported by structural factors, the euro has the potential to maintain a relatively stable performance. However, a sustained, one-way bullish trend remains quite challenging.

Going forward, investors should pay attention to several key points: changes in the US-Europe interest rate differential, the implementation of Germany's fiscal stimulus, and geopolitical and energy-related risks. These factors will directly influence the euro's future trajectory and determine whether your euro investments can be profitable.