Over the past month, I've been observing gold market trends and noticed an interesting phenomenon—although gold prices have pulled back somewhat, the market’s consensus on the long-term outlook for gold has actually become more firm.

I’ve been pondering what exactly is driving this gold bull market? On the surface, it seems to be expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and inflation pressures, but deeper down, it actually reflects a long-term global skepticism toward the fiat currency system. When foreign exchange reserves were frozen in 2022, the market truly realized that the "absolute safety" of the US dollar as a reserve currency had been shaken. Because gold cannot be unilaterally frozen, it has instead become the ultimate measure of value.

This is not short-term speculation. According to data from the World Gold Council, global central banks purchased over 1,200 tons of gold last year, surpassing 1,000 tons for four consecutive years. More importantly, 76% of surveyed central banks expect to increase their gold holdings over the next five years, while also anticipating a decline in dollar reserves. See, this is central banks voting with their actions—what does it indicate? It shows that skepticism toward the dollar system has spread from the market to the official level.

The fundamental drivers of gold price increases can actually be divided into two categories. One is structural, slow-changing variables—trust adjustments in the dollar, continuous central bank accumulation, de-dollarization trends—these factors will not disappear in the coming years. The other is cyclical, fast-changing variables—expectations of rate cuts, tariff policies, geopolitical events—these create short-term volatility but do not alter the long-term direction.

In recent months, gold prices have indeed pulled back, falling nearly 18% since March, but I’ve noticed a detail: each dip has been used by central banks or institutions as a buying opportunity. What does this indicate? It shows that the demand structure for gold has changed—it’s no longer just a safe-haven sentiment, but an essential part of asset allocation.

According to institutional forecasts, the consensus for 2026 is for high-level consolidation with an upward bias. Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700, JPMorgan expects to reach $6,300 in Q4, and UBS believes it could hit $6,200 by mid-year. In optimistic scenarios, forecasts even point to a range of $6,000 to $7,200. Of course, these predictions assume economic slowdown, continued rate declines, and geopolitical risks persisting.

As retail investors, is there still an opportunity now? I believe there is, but it depends on the situation. If you’re a short-term trader, the volatility around U.S. market data releases does offer opportunities, but you must set strict stop-losses. If you’re a beginner, start with small amounts to test the waters—never blindly chase highs, as most retail investors who entered late are the ones caught in the downturn. If you’re a long-term investor, gold is indeed worth including in your portfolio as a hedge, but be prepared for a drawdown of over 20%, because gold’s volatility is not lower than stocks.

Experienced investors might consider a combination approach—holding core positions long-term to hedge systemic risks, while using volatile swings for tactical trades. But this requires strong risk management skills and sensitivity to macroeconomic data.

I want to emphasize that gold’s cycle is very long. Buying it as a store of value can pay off over a decade or more, but in the meantime, it could double or halve in value. The key is to establish a clear analytical framework, not to follow the herd blindly. Monitoring central bank gold purchase data, tracking real interest rate changes, and observing dollar trends are the real signals to judge whether the upward momentum will continue.

The story of gold in 2026 is far from over, but you need to know where you stand and what stance to take when entering the market.