Recently, while watching the market, I noticed an interesting phenomenon— the petrodollar system is under multiple pressures. The tension in the Iran-U.S. situation has led the market to reexamine the stability of this system. A report from Deutsche Bank points out that the three major pillars—oil demand, dollar-denominated power, and Gulf security relations—are all currently wavering, and the impact on global asset allocation could be larger than people expect.

From a technical perspective, the U.S. dollar index has repeatedly probed the 100 level last week without success. It is currently consolidating around 99, and the 101.30 area appears to be a tough nut to crack. If a genuine rebound of the dollar is blocked, downside pressure could be substantial—possibly dragging it down toward 98 and even 95. By contrast, the performance of gold and oil is more interesting. Gold rose 2% on Wednesday, approaching 4600. If this level can be broken through effectively, the rebound room could open up to 4860 and even 5000. Crude oil, however, is more complicated: it has failed to close above 100 for 12 days, indicating that resistance overhead really is strong.

What’s interesting is that as geopolitical uncertainty rises, the relationship among gold, oil, and the U.S. dollar becomes more complex. Generally, a weaker dollar is beneficial for gold and oil, but now the situation is that all three are struggling under their own pressures. The S&P 500 index is also not optimistic— it has already fallen more than 7% from its highs, and is currently around 6550. Based on the technical pattern, there appears to be further downside risk; if it breaks below 6400, it may test 6000. Overall, it feels like the market is waiting for a clear signal, and then the price trends of these assets could become more clear.