1. Key Price Levels

• Resistance: First resistance at $79,500–$80k (strong psychological barrier, multiple attempts to break higher then retreat); second resistance at $82,500–$83,000 (200-day moving average + previous accumulation zone)

• Support: First support at $77,000–$77,500; strong support at $75,000–$75,500; extreme support at $73,000 (this round’s upward trend line)

2. Indicator Signals

• Daily chart: Break below the 50-day moving average, RSI drops below 50, bullish momentum weakens, short-term sideways to bearish oscillation

• Weekly chart: Moving averages are in a bullish alignment, the major cycle trend remains intact after the halving, pullbacks are a continuation of the uptrend, not a reversal

• Pattern: Multiple long upper shadows above $80, encountering resistance at highs, indicating a high-level shakeout and clearing short-term bulls

II. Fundamentals and Capital Flow

1. Short-term bearish signals

◦ Large net outflows from US spot ETFs, institutions taking short-term profits, giants like Blackstone reducing holdings

◦ US dollar index rebounds, Fed rate cut expectations delayed, high interest rates suppress risk assets

◦ High leverage accumulated at top levels, triggering chain liquidations during declines, increasing volatility

2. Long-term bullish signals

◦ Supply continues to tighten after 2024 halving, minimal daily new BTC, long-term supply-demand imbalance

◦ Institutional and pension fund long-term allocation strategies remain unchanged, major drops are buying opportunities

◦ Digital gold’s safe-haven attribute continues to strengthen, geopolitical turmoil benefits BTC

III. Market Outlook

1. Short-term (1–3 days): Likely to oscillate weakly between $77,000–$80,000, with a possibility of retesting $75,000

2. Mid-term (1–4 weeks): As long as it stays above $73,000, after consolidation it will challenge $83,000–$85,000 again

3. Long-term (second half of 2026): Halving cycle + institutional funds, very high probability of new highs, target above $90k+

IV. Trading Tips (for reference only, not investment advice)

• Short-term: Facing resistance near $80,000, avoid chasing longs; if retesting $75,000–$76,000 stabilizes, consider phased accumulation

• Mid-term: Hold firmly above $73,000, add on major dips, avoid cutting positions easily

• Risk management: Strict stop-loss, high volatility risk in futures trading, participate cautiously
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