I just reviewed the price evolution of gold over the past 20 years, and there are things that surprise even those who follow these markets closely.

In October 2025, gold was hovering around $4,270 per ounce. To put it in perspective: two decades ago, it barely exceeded $400. That means it multiplied by more than ten in 20 years. This is no ordinary growth; we're talking about an accumulated increase close to 900%. And the most interesting part is that this was not a linear rise, but a roller coaster of well-defined phases.

The first major wave arrived between 2005 and 2010. Gold prices took off driven by the dollar's weakness, soaring oil prices, and total distrust in financial assets after the mortgage crisis. It went from $430 to $1,200 in five years. Then came Lehman Brothers in 2008, which cemented gold as the ultimate safe haven. Central banks started accumulating, institutional funds arrived en masse.

From 2010 to 2015, it was different: correction and sideways movement. Markets stabilized, developed economies regained momentum, and the Federal Reserve began normalizing rates. Gold moved between $1,000 and $1,200, without offering spectacular returns. It was technical, not structural.

But between 2015 and 2020, something important happened. Trade tensions between the United States and China, skyrocketing public debt, interest rates falling to historic lows. Gold shined again. And when COVID-19 arrived in 2020, it was the definitive catalyst: it surpassed $2,000 for the first time. There were no longer doubts about its status as a trusted asset in times of crisis.

The latest phase, 2020-2025, was an unprecedented climb. It went from $1,900 to over $4,200. A +124% increase in just five years. That brought the total return over the last 20 years to levels few assets can boast.

Now, what really draws attention is the annualized return of gold in the last decade: around 7-8% per year. For an asset that does not generate dividends or interest, that is remarkable. And here’s the interesting part: in the last five years, gold has outperformed both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq-100 in accumulated returns. Something uncommon over such extended periods.

But it’s not just about returns. The risk profile is what sets gold apart. In 2008, while stocks plummeted more than 30%, gold barely retreated 2%. In 2020, when uncertainty paralyzed everything, it again acted as a refuge. That’s what makes it special: gold prices tend to perform better precisely when stocks start to doubt.

The factors behind this evolution are clear. First, real interest rates. When they are negative, gold appreciates. The Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank reduced real bond yields through quantitative easing, which boosted gold demand. Second, the dollar. Since gold is traded in dollars, a weak currency pushes up its price. The dollar’s depreciation after 2020 coincided with the main bullish runs.

Third, inflation and fiscal policy. The pandemic and massive spending programs rekindled inflation fears. When inflation is high, investors seek to protect their purchasing power, and gold benefits. Fourth, geopolitical tensions. Conflicts, sanctions, changes in energy policy. Central banks of emerging countries increased their gold reserves to reduce dependence on the dollar.

For portfolio builders, gold should not be seen as speculation. It’s a stability tool. Its main function is not to generate extraordinary gains but to protect real value against unforeseen shocks. Advisors recommend allocating between 5% and 10% of assets in physical gold, ETFs backed by metal, or funds that replicate its behavior.

And there’s an additional advantage many underestimate: universal liquidity. In any market, at any time, gold can be converted into cash without suffering the swings of debt or capital restrictions. In times of monetary tension or financial uncertainty, this becomes especially valuable.

The conclusion is simple: the gold price over the last 20 years has not risen by chance. It has risen because when confidence erodes—due to inflation, debt, politics, or conflicts—gold takes center stage. It is not a substitute for growth nor a promise of quick wealth. It is a silent insurance that appreciates when other assets falter. For those building a balanced portfolio, it remains an essential piece of the global financial puzzle, just as it was twenty years ago.