Recently, gold prices have risen to a record high, and many people around me are asking whether they can still enter the market now. To be honest, this is a good question because it directly points to one of the most critical decisions in investing—when is the right time to buy gold.

First, let me share my observations. This gold bull market, on the surface, seems driven by rate cuts, inflation, and geopolitical risks, but the underlying driving force is deeper. The pivotal moment in 2022 was significant; the event of foreign exchange reserves being frozen shook people's confidence in the dollar system, prompting central banks to start large-scale gold purchases. This isn’t short-term speculation but a systemic structural shift. Major central banks bought over 1,200 tons of gold last year, marking the fourth consecutive year exceeding 1,000 tons. 76% of surveyed central banks said they plan to increase their gold allocation over the next five years. What does this mean? It means the gold price bottom is continuously being pushed higher.

But this also raises a question—can we still buy now? My answer depends on who you are.

If you are a short-term trader, now is definitely a good time. Due to tariff policy uncertainties in 2025, gold price volatility has increased, providing many opportunities for short-term traders. Before and after U.S. market data releases (non-farm payrolls, CPI, FOMC), volatility is especially pronounced, and technical analysts can catch the wave. But the premise is to set strict stop-losses, controlling risk within 1-2%.

If you are a beginner, my advice is to start with small amounts to test the waters. Gold’s volatility rate is 19.4% annually, not lower than stocks, making it easy to chase in at high levels. Learn to use economic calendars to track U.S. data release times, which can help you judge when it’s appropriate to buy. Don’t blindly add positions; once your mindset collapses, it’s easy to lose everything.

For long-term investors? Gold is indeed suitable as a diversification tool in a portfolio, but be prepared to endure a decline of over 20%. There was a significant correction of 18% at the beginning of 2026, with intense volatility. So don’t put all your assets in; diversified investments are more stable.

Experienced investors can consider a combination of long and short strategies—holding core positions long-term, using volatility for short-term trades with satellite positions. But this requires strong risk control capabilities.

Regarding the question of when to buy, there’s an often-overlooked point: physical gold trading costs are high, generally 5-20%. Frequent trading can eat up a large portion of profits. If you want to do swing trading, gold ETFs or liquid tools like XAU/USD are more suitable.

Looking at forecasts for 2026, opinions vary widely. Goldman Sachs raised its year-end target from $5,400 to $5,700, mainly due to ongoing central bank purchases and expectations of Fed rate cuts. JPMorgan expects it to reach $6,300 in Q4, optimistic about ETF capital inflows and escalating geopolitical crises. Citibank predicts an average of $5,800 in the second half, UBS an average of $5,000 for the whole year. The consensus forecast range is $4,800 to $5,200 (annual average), with year-end targets of $5,400 to $5,800, and an optimistic scenario of $6,000 to $6,500.

But behind these forecasts lies an important signal: the gold price in 2026 is more like “high-level oscillation with an upward bias,” rather than a one-way unstoppable rally. If the economy slows and rates further decline, gold may gently rise; if policies successfully boost growth and the dollar strengthens, gold could retreat.

My personal view is that central bank gold purchases reflect a long-term skepticism of the dollar system. This trend in 2026 will not suddenly disappear because inflation remains sticky, debt pressures persist, and geopolitical tensions continue. The total global debt has reached $307 trillion, and high debt levels mean limited flexibility in interest rate policies. Monetary policy is more likely to stay accommodative, indirectly boosting gold’s appeal. Plus, stock markets are at historic highs, increasing concentration risks in investment portfolios, prompting many to allocate to gold for stability.

So, when is the right time to buy gold? My suggestion is to first clarify your own positioning. Are you a short-term trader, a long-term investor, or a swing trader? Depending on your role, the timing and strategy for entering the market will differ completely. Short-term traders focus on U.S. market data, long-term investors watch central bank moves, and swing traders look at technical positions. Don’t follow the news blindly; building a systematic monitoring approach is key.

This gold bull market indeed offers opportunities, but opportunities always favor those who are prepared. Clarify your target returns and risk tolerance, then decide how to enter. Going with the trend is the long-term winning strategy.