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Israel never confirmed its arsenal, but Mordechai Vanunu's 1986 leak + CIA estimates put their warheads at 20–200kt.
20kt = low-end fission device, Nagasaki-level, the realistic minimum for a functional warhead.
IF it was a nuke of this size, the following would happen around the area:
🔴 0–1.1km — Beit Shemesh city center vaporized, zero survival
🟠 2.3km — Ramat Beit Shemesh flattened
🟡 4.5km — Tzur Hadassah & Nes Harim: fatal burns, mass fires
🟣 9km — Shoresh & Husan: severe 1st/2nd degree burns
🔵 15km — Modi'in & Mevasseret Zion: windows shattered, debris casualties
Anyone knows anyone in these areas and can confirm what's happening?
Analysis by Claude