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The rally in silver is really strong; I've been watching this market trend closely lately.
Since the beginning of the year, silver has risen over 60%, far surpassing gold's 22% increase, and this gap is quite significant.
At the end of last month, silver was still at $116 per ounce, climbing for several days in a row, with market sentiment particularly high.
Citigroup's analysts say that silver is now being used as a hedge against macroeconomic risks, but compared to gold, silver is more flexible and more volatile.
I noticed that the gold-silver ratio has already fallen to 45 times, a new low since 2011.
Deutsche Bank believes that based on historical patterns, such extreme deviations will eventually revert, so the future trend of silver may not stay this crazy forever.
Deutsche Bank predicts that the gold-silver ratio will eventually return to around 65 times, corresponding to a silver price of about $95.
But Citigroup is more optimistic, believing that if the ratio returns to 32 times as in 2011, silver could rise to $160–$170.
In extreme cases, if the ratio drops to 14 times as in 1979, silver could theoretically reach over $300.
However, this rally also brings risks.
The CME recently adjusted the margin requirements for silver futures five times in the past month, clearly trying to control speculative enthusiasm.
Goldman Sachs also warned that silver's two-way volatility will be intense, with sharp rises and falls, so the future trend of silver still depends on macroeconomic conditions and capital flows.
In the short term, there may still be profit-taking risks, so caution is advised.