Recently, I noticed an interesting phenomenon: the US-Iran negotiations have introduced uncertainties, causing gold prices to fall sharply in the past few days.

The situation is this: in mid-April, the US and Iran just signed a ceasefire agreement. After it went into effect on the first day, Israel launched a large-scale airstrike against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Seeing this, Iran directly said the other side had violated the ceasefire, then turned around and closed the Strait of Hormuz. With all this going on, gold prices dropped immediately, falling from $4,857 per ounce straight down to $4,699, a decline of nearly 4%.

Why would this happen? The World Gold Council explains it quite clearly: investors are now facing a cross-asset sell-off wave. To cover margin requirements for other assets such as US stocks, they are forced to sell the most liquid asset—gold—to raise cash. If crude oil stays above $100 per barrel due to the conflict continuing, it could trigger yet another round of deleveraging, and in the short term, gold will still have to bear the selling pressure brought by “liquidity for urgent needs.”

That said, looking back, since the US-Israel surprise attack on Iran at the end of February, gold has already fallen by nearly 9% in total. From a technical perspective, it has already undergone plenty of adjustments. From a longer-term perspective, however, things are actually worth being more optimistic about: central banks are still continuously buying gold, and the Federal Reserve may also pivot toward a more dovish stance. These factors are all positive for gold.

A technical analyst, Jordan Roy-Byrne, put forward an interesting view: historical data shows that when gold breaks out and then retraces to complete the process by testing the 200-day moving average, the next bull market will start. According to his prediction, this round of correction will continue for another 2 to 3 months. Gold is expected to find a bottom around mid-June, near $4,200. If the potential pullback is measured using the historical retreat magnitudes seen in 1973 and 2006, then by October 2026, gold could be expected to stand back above $6,000.

So, the current picture is that in the short term, US dollar appreciation and geopolitical risks may still weigh on gold. But over a longer time horizon, the story of gold’s bull market is not over. It’s worth continuing to watch how this asset develops.