#TradFi交易分享挑战

If we shift our focus away from short-term fluctuations in macro interest rates, silver’s fundamentals are undergoing a profound transformation. The core driver behind this change is the surge in industrial demand unleashed by the global energy transition. Many people still tend to categorize silver simply as a precious metal, but in reality, silver’s industrial attributes now account for more than half of total demand, and consumption of silver by the photovoltaic industry is growing at an astonishing pace.

The rapid iteration of heterojunction and TOPCon battery technologies means that the amount of silver paste required per gigawatt of photovoltaic capacity has not decreased as dramatically as previously expected. Instead, it is being maintained at a high level due to requirements for higher conversion efficiency. According to industry data, in 2025 global new photovoltaic installations will exceed 500 gigawatts, setting a historical record for annual silver consumption. Entering 2026, although subsidy cuts in some countries continue, installation plans in China, India, and the Middle East remain aggressive. Combined with the ongoing rollout of investments related to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, demand for silver in photovoltaics continues to rise. This structural increment provides the silver market with a solid demand base it has never had in the past decade.

In addition to photovoltaics, emerging sectors such as electric vehicles and 5G communication equipment are also steadily increasing their use of silver. The amount of silver consumed per electric vehicle—in processes such as electrical connections and chip packaging—far exceeds that of traditional gasoline vehicles. And the continued rise in global EV penetration will undoubtedly support long-term demand for silver. From the supply side, however, global silver mine production has been growing sluggishly for several years. With declining ore grades, a shortage of new large-scale silver mine projects, and insufficient capital expenditure by mining companies, it becomes difficult for incremental supply of mined silver to keep pace with the expansion of demand. The World Silver Association’s annual report has pointed out for two consecutive years that the silver market is experiencing a structural shortage, and that this gap is mainly being covered by above-ground inventories.

This leads to a question worth deep thought: as the central bank gold-buying frenzy continues and gold keeps setting new all-time highs, is a catch-up rally for silver about to arrive? Historical experience suggests that in the second phase of a precious metals bull market, silver often records even more dramatic gains due to the capital spillover effect. The current gold-to-silver ratio is still hovering above 85, far higher than the long-term average. This indicates that silver is significantly undervalued relative to gold. Once the global macro environment shifts in a way that favors precious metals overall, silver’s upside could very likely outperform gold.

From a technical perspective, long-term charts are more convincing. On the monthly chart, since its 2020 peak, silver has formed an oversized rounded-bottom pattern. The neckline is around $30. At present, the price is repeatedly tugging back and forth near the neckline. If it successfully breaks out and then retests to confirm, it will open up room for a move at a historical scale. For medium- to long-term investors, building positions in batches at this stage and holding patiently may be an option worth considering. Do you think industrial demand can become the key catalyst that helps silver break out of its range-bound movement and kick off a new bull market? Feel free to join the discussion.
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