I have been reviewing gold movements during 2025, and honestly, it has been a quite intense year for the metal. It started the year at $2,670 and ended around $4,300-$4,350 per ounce, so we are talking about a massive gain close to 60% accumulated.

What’s interesting is that whether gold will rise in the coming days will depend on the same factors that have driven it all this year: the Fed’s monetary policy, the dollar’s behavior, and geopolitics. By the end of 2025, the metal remained firm near all-time highs, consolidating around $4,350, suggesting that investors are still seeking safe havens.

Regarding technical levels, analysts are watching resistance at $4,400-$4,450, with support at $4,200-$4,250. If there are no major macro surprises, the metal could continue in this defined range with a slightly positive bias. The RSI has fluctuated between overbought zones but without clear signs of exhaustion.

The main drivers have been clear: first, expectations of Fed easing weakened the dollar; second, trade tensions between the U.S. and China increased the safe-haven premium; third, central banks (especially China) kept buying gold, with more than a third planning to increase reserves. And fourth, conflicts in the Middle East reinforced demand for safe assets.

Experts have interesting forecasts for 2026: Goldman Sachs points to $2,973, Bank of America to $2,750, JP Morgan to $2,775, and UBS also to $2,973. Although these figures are for 2025, the fundamental market structure remains. Whether gold will rise in the coming months will depend on whether the Fed accelerates cuts, if the dollar weakens further, and if geopolitics continues to be a risk factor.

The structural demand from central banks and ETFs remains solid, suggesting the metal has a floor. However, it’s important to monitor inflation data, monetary policy decisions, and any geopolitical tensions that could reduce safe-haven demand. For now, gold maintains its momentum, and high levels seem to be supported by solid fundamentals.