Just noticed that gold has successfully broken through the EMA 200 at $4,711 after bouncing from $4,521 in just 4 days, gaining $200. Now it’s above all three moving averages, which is a quite clear bullish signal.

Analyzing gold in this market requires looking at multiple dimensions simultaneously. Part of it comes from hopes that the Iran-U.S. deal is close to ending, causing oil to drop 8% and reducing inflation concerns. Another factor is the decline in bond yields, lowering the cost of holding gold. The RSI has recovered from oversold levels to 55, not yet overbought. The MACD has also crossed upward, indicating a short-term bullish trend technically.

However, this is a point where caution is needed. Why? Because if the NFP or average wage data come out strong, the dollar will strengthen again, and gold could fall back to test $4,650 or even as low as $4,521 immediately. Conversely, if the data is weak, gold could break through $4,750 to test $4,800.

For long-term gold analysis, I think it’s better to wait for a safer entry point, around $4,690-$4,650, with a stop loss at $4,520. The main target is $4,800, then $4,883. For short-term trading, beware of sharp fluctuations. Don’t open large positions before key data releases.