Bitcoin drops below $78k, with over $500 million in long liquidations in 24 hours, and funding rates turning negative across the board. But some traders believe this is a "bear market trap"—the rebound is not over, just a washout of excessive leverage.

From the data, if BTC continues to fall to $76k, CEX long liquidations will reach $628 million; if it rebounds to $80k, short liquidations will hit $914 million. The current market is in a fragile balance of long and short kills, with the direction depending on macro triggers.
The macro environment is not friendly: the Federal Reserve has a 98.7% probability of maintaining interest rates in June, US Treasury yields are rebounding, and ETFs have net outflows of nearly $1 billion this week. Liquidity injections combined with leverage unwinding mean the narrative of a rebound needs a new catalyst.
The logic of the "bear market trap" hinges on the premise that current sell-offs are short-term panic rather than a trend reversal. But with funding rates remaining negative and Coinbase premium index negative for eight consecutive days, US buying momentum is weak. If next week’s Nvidia earnings report or Federal Reserve meeting minutes don’t surprise, $78k may just be a relay station.
The risk is: if a chain reaction of liquidations triggers, the liquidity vacuum below $76k could accelerate the decline. Don’t guess the bottom; wait for structural signals—such as funding rates turning positive or ETF switching to net inflow.
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