I noticed strange movements in the gold market this year, and the truth is that the situation is much more complex than it appears on the surface.

2026 started with a very strong rally – gold reached a historic peak near $5,595 in January after gains exceeding 64% in 2025. But then the market entered a completely different phase. In March, a sharp correction wave occurred – gold lost about 11.8% in the month and dropped to $4,097. And now in May, it’s moving with clear volatility between approximately $4,655 and $4,784.

The real question now: When will gold’s price actually decline more deeply, or are we only facing a natural correction?

The pressures are very clear. U.S. interest rates remain high, and the Federal Reserve seems cautious about a quick cut, especially after strong employment data (178,000 jobs in March). The dollar is significantly strong – the dollar index rose by 1.6% in the first quarter, marking the best quarterly performance since late 2024. U.S. 10-year bond yields jumped from 4.01% to 4.44% during March. All of this puts strong pressure on gold because it’s a non-yielding asset.

But – and this is important – support levels still exist. The World Gold Council expects central bank purchases to continue strongly, near 850 tons in 2026. Major institutions are relatively optimistic: JPMorgan forecasts $6,300 by year-end, UBS says $5,900. Even Macquarie, with its reservations, expects an average of $4,323. Investment demand has not stopped – gold ETF inflows reached 801 tons in 2025.

There are also geopolitical risks. Tensions in the Middle East, uncertainty about global stability – all of this reaffirms gold’s role as a safe haven. Institutions now see it not just as a metal, but as a hedge tool in a less stable financial system.

Practically, the most likely scenario now is wide volatility rather than a collapse. Gold could decline further if the dollar remains strong and interest rates stay high, but $4,500 seems to be a strong support zone. On the other hand, if the economy weakens or expectations of rate cuts return strongly, gold could regain momentum quickly.

If you’re thinking of entering now, don’t buy everything at once. Divide your purchases into stages – 5% additional decline, then 10%, then 15%. This reduces the average cost and minimizes the impact of timing mistakes. And it’s crucial to rely on technical analysis – look for real support levels that the market defends, don’t assume every dip is a golden opportunity.

The truth is, when gold’s price will decline depends on what happens to interest rates, the dollar, and geopolitical conditions. The market is now waiting for new signals. Any surprise in inflation or employment data could change the trend quickly. Geopolitical tensions could immediately revive safe-haven demand. In summary: don’t expect a collapse, but expect volatility. Those who understand this balance between pressures and supports will be the ones to benefit from the movement.