I just noticed that the gold market is in a very interesting state. The XAUUSD price is still fluctuating within a narrow range between $4,669 and $4,709 after the April inflation news came out at 3.8%, the highest in three years.

What’s notable is that the market has already started to decide that the Fed may not cut interest rates this year. Some are still worried that rates might increase instead. The problem is that this inflation is driven by rising oil prices because the Hormuz Strait remains closed, not from strong demand. This is a difficult situation for the Fed because raising rates would slow down the economy even more, but not raising them would embed inflation further.

What surprised me even more was the news from India. Yesterday, the government announced an increase in gold import duties from 6% to 15%, more than doubling in a single announcement, following Prime Minister Modi’s request for people to stop buying gold. The issue is that India isn’t just a country that buys gold for preference; India is the second-largest gold buyer in the world after China. Every time Indians buy more gold, the rupee needs to be exchanged for dollars more, causing the rupee to weaken, and the oil paid for in dollars becomes more expensive. This is a problem that the market hasn’t fully absorbed yet because everyone is focused on CPI news and the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing.

Speaking of that summit, Trump has arrived in Beijing along with top US company leaders. This is the first visit by a US president to China in nearly 10 years. Experts say China holds a stronger hand because China is the largest buyer of Iranian oil. If China can pressure Iran to open the Hormuz Strait, oil prices will plummet, inflation will decrease, the Fed won’t need to raise rates, and gold could potentially surge back to $5,000. But if the summit ends without clear results, the situation will remain tense.

Based on technical analysis of gold prices, the 4-hour chart shows a narrowing triangle pattern. This is a signal that a breakout could happen soon, but the direction still depends on the outcome of the summit. The EMA 200 at $4,709 is the main resistance. If the price stays below this line, the chart outlook is slightly bearish. RSI is at 51, leaving room for movement in both directions. MACD indicates short-term bearish momentum.

For traders analyzing gold today, be cautious of high risks due to uncertain summit results. If the price pulls back to around $4,685 to $4,690 and doesn’t break below, consider buying with a stop loss at $4,665, aiming to take profit at $4,709. If the 4-hour candle closes clearly above $4,710, consider adding to long positions.

For long-term holders, the attractive accumulation zone is between $4,665 and $4,685. The long-term target remains at $5,000, but patience is needed for major catalysts like the summit outcome or changes in the Hormuz situation. Avoid overtrading before clear results are in, as the gold market is in an uncertain state. Wait for the next big news.