Recently, I've seen people compare the curve of stablecoin supply to ETF net inflows, saying "funds are coming in, so it must go up." I personally am quite wary of this narrative; just because the correlation looks pleasing doesn't mean causation is established: more stablecoins could mean waiting for opportunities, or it could mean risk appetite has decreased, so investors are staying on the sidelines; similarly, with ETFs, inflows don't mean immediately chasing the rally, more like gradually adjusting positions. The market is like a mirror— the more impatient you are, the more it tends to go against you.

By the way, the testnet incentives and token expectations are heating up again, and the group is guessing every day whether the mainnet will issue tokens... I now treat this as a temperature gauge of sentiment; when everyone is too aligned, I’ll reduce my positions a bit and keep some cash (or stablecoins) in reserve until I feel less emotional. Let’s see.