Gold prices surged sharply, rattling the market in early 2569, but the question lingering in investors’ minds is: Will gold have a chance to fall? Is this all-time-high level real, or just a temporary bubble?

Looking back to the beginning of the year, the Greenland conflict pushed gold prices above $5,600 per ounce. What’s interesting is that even after the event passed and a cooperation agreement was announced instead of territorial annexation, gold prices remained strong, showing that the factors supporting the price did not come from a single event.

Central banks’ risk diversification worldwide remains the main sustainable driver. Central banks in emerging markets such as China, India, and Brazil have continued to be net buyers of gold for the 15th consecutive year, expected to purchase a total of about 755 tons in 2569. The main reason is to reduce reliance on the US dollar to protect against risks of asset freezing, like what happened with Russia.

In Thailand, gold bar prices have broken through 70,000 baht, driven by both the strong rally in global gold prices and the strengthening of the baht. The relationship between the baht and gold prices is called “Gold-Baht Correlation,” which results from investors selling gold to realize profits and then converting foreign currency back into baht. Transactions related to gold trading account for as much as 35% of the total foreign exchange trading volume, causing the baht to strengthen to 30.88 baht per US dollar, the strongest level in nearly 5 years.

To control volatility in the baht, the Bank of Thailand introduced new measures in 2569, including reporting large transactions exceeding 20 million baht, setting daily trading ceilings, and encouraging more gold trading to be conducted in US dollars.

From the perspective of global financial institutions, most have adjusted their outlook to bullish. Goldman Sachs expects a target of $5,400; J.P. Morgan expects an average of $5,055 in Q4 and could reach $5,400 in 2570; while Bank of America looks ahead to $6,000. However, there are also other institutions with more cautious views, such as HSBC at about $3,950 and Citi at $3,250.

But will gold have a chance to fall? From a technical perspective, the $5,000 level is an important psychological barrier. If prices break below it, strong support lies between $4,680 and $4,750. If they fall further, major support would be at $4,360–$4,450, which is a good opportunity for long-term investors.

The RSI often moves into overbought territory when prices approach $5,000, a warning signal that there may be short-term profit-taking selling. This is the point where investors should stay alert.

The Fed’s monetary policy remains a key factor. In 2569, it is expected that there will be only 1 rate cut, keeping real interest rates low, which is positive for gold. Meanwhile, the rising US public debt remains a concern.

For investment strategy, the answer is “timing, but not chasing prices.” Instead of buying at the new peak, you should wait for the price to pull back. If gold has a chance to fall, the answer is yes—but you must wait for the market to offer a suitable opportunity. The range between $4,680–$4,750 or lower would be the appropriate areas to consider entering positions.