#TrumpVisitsChina #BitcoinVShapedReversalBack 1. The Physical Reality of Supply Shock

To support your argument regarding supply discipline and inventory expectations, the oil market report issued by the International Energy Agency in May 2026 indicated a massive drawdown of global inventories (disappearing more than 240 million barrels in just March and April). Moreover, Saudi Arabia’s production, which has reached its lowest levels since 1990, adds tangible weight to the geopolitical risk concerns you mentioned.
2. The Bottleneck at the Strait of Hormuz
You hit the target regarding the Strait of Hormuz. Normal flows of about 20 million barrels per day have significantly decreased during the recent peak tensions related to Iran. Although the market experienced a temporary psychological relief when some commercial ships safely crossed the strait recently, the cumulative losses mean the market still suffers from a structural supply shortage.
Implementation reminders for your challenge
Monitor the Relative Strength Index and closing prices: on daily charts, the fast RSI has been hovering near the overbought zone (70+). This strongly supports your conservative strategy of not chasing peaks above $112-113.
Traps: Since momentum-based automated trading amplifies these moves, intraday highs above $113 are very susceptible to being “liquidity pulls” rather than genuine structural breakouts. Waiting for a daily close above $113.50 is an excellent rule to avoid falling into the trap.
Your strategy perfectly balances defensive asset allocation with clear risk signals. Good luck with the challenge—closely watch those headlines!
Given the current tight inventory data supporting geopolitical risks, are you more inclined toward a stacking strategy during deep pullbacks, or are you strictly waiting for news-driven breakout confirmation?