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I just saw someone use "on-chain coincidence transfers" as a conspiracy theory headline again, it's hilarious but a bit tiring... To put it simply, many so-called coincidences are just the same entry/exit points being used: exchange hot wallets consolidating, cross-chain bridges splitting and then reassembling, market-making/clearing robots making payments on a fixed schedule, or even the same group of people using the same routing to save on fees, which looks like "remote linking."
When I look at this kind of diagram now, I basically ask myself three questions first: Where did the money come from, did it pass through common intermediaries (bridges/aggregators/exchanges), and finally, did it return to a familiar set of addresses.
The modular approach is the same; developers talk about the DA layer enthusiastically, but users just feel "there's another layer," and in the end, all these paths show up: one more step, one more set of "coincidences."
That's it for now, I'll look again tomorrow—my eyes are already tired.