Lately, I've been watching the USD/JPY trend, and I realize this rebound is quite fierce. Just two days ago, it rose from 157.95 all the way up, climbing for four consecutive days, and is about to approach the 158 level. The Japanese authorities should be getting nervous again; they've intervened several times at this price level before.

Why has the yen been depreciating continuously? Basically, there are two reasons. One is the interest rate differential—currently, the US interest rate is 3.5% to 3.75%, while Japan's is only 0.75%, almost a 3 percentage point gap, prompting arbitrage traders to keep selling yen. The other is the trade deficit—rising oil prices driven by Middle East tensions, Japan's heavy reliance on imported energy, which leads to a widening trade deficit, making the yen more vulnerable to depreciation. Plus, the Federal Reserve is expected to keep rates unchanged throughout the year, supporting the dollar.

According to institutional analysts, the Bank of Japan still has plenty of foreign exchange reserves to use, so theoretically, they have enough ammunition. But the problem is, relying solely on intervention can only temporarily suppress the yen; the real solution to the yen's exchange rate trend must fundamentally improve the interest rate differential and trade situation. Some analysts believe that if these structural issues are not addressed, USD/JPY could become a regular around 160, and any future interventions won't have lasting effects.