I have been paying close attention to the RMB trend forecast lately because some interesting changes are indeed happening. To be honest, this round of RMB appreciation has caught my attention since the end of last year, when it finally broke the psychological barrier of 7.0. After entering 2026, the appreciation momentum has become even stronger, once surging to 6.81, hitting a nearly three-year high.

I’ve summarized the underlying logic, which is mainly driven by three factors. First, China’s export resilience is particularly strong; last year’s trade surplus hit a record high of $1.2 trillion, a 20% increase compared to the year before, naturally boosting foreign exchange demand. Second, the US dollar index has been relatively weak overall; although it rebounded briefly due to Middle East tensions, it has now returned to oscillate narrowly between 98 and 98.5. The third factor is that foreign investors are regaining confidence in RMB assets, with capital inflows warming up.

I remember the recent Spring Festival rally vividly; in just three trading days, the RMB appreciated nearly 600 points, showing very strong market sentiment. By mid-April, both onshore and offshore RMB broke above the 6.82 level, with highs reaching 6.8189 and 6.8134 respectively. However, at this point, the central bank also took action to “cool down” the market by lowering the foreign exchange risk reserve ratio, signaling that they do not want the exchange rate to appreciate excessively on one side.

From the perspective of RMB trend forecasts, international investment banks are generally optimistic. Goldman Sachs maintains a target of 6.70, believing there is about 22% room for further appreciation. HSBC sets its year-end target at 6.75. Many institutions think that as long as the US dollar’s credibility isn’t restored and China’s economic fundamentals continue to show positive signals, the upward momentum could persist.

But honestly, it’s wise to be more rational when buying RMB now. In the short term, central bank policy adjustments and seasonal factors (the second quarter is usually the peak period for corporate FX purchases) suggest that the exchange rate is unlikely to surge unilaterally. My view is that if you have long-term holding needs or want to hedge against USD risk, there is indeed value in allocating now. However, blindly chasing the high is not very wise; a phased approach to positioning and closely monitoring the central parity rate and trade data are recommended.

As of early May, offshore RMB has fluctuated roughly between 6.82 and 6.95, appreciating over 1,400 basis points compared to the beginning of the year. The key to this RMB trend forecast still depends on US-China relations, Federal Reserve policy paths, and China’s economic recovery. If these factors continue to support, RMB could test the 6.70 to 6.75 range, but in the short term, it’s more likely to consolidate within a range.

Overall, the logic behind this RMB appreciation wave does exist, but the pace requires patience. It’s important to set stop-loss and take-profit levels, keep an eye on central bank movements, and not be fooled by short-term gains—that’s the rational investment attitude.