Gold is currently stuck in a very narrow range, moving around $4,800 approximately, and the market is in full wait-and-see mode. Everything depends on the results of negotiations between Washington and Tehran, and investors are hesitant to make big decisions before knowing what will actually happen. Interestingly, the dollar is weak right now, which usually supports gold, but the rise in US interest rates is still putting pressure on it from the other side.

I noticed that oil prices have dropped significantly, which slightly eases inflation fears. Demand from Asia is very weak, especially from India and China, and Indian banks have suspended gold imports, causing chaos in supply chains. This puts pressure on prices locally, but the global impact is not entirely clear.

From a technical perspective, the price is in a consolidation zone before a major breakout. If it breaks $4,800 strongly, the natural target is $5,000, and if it fails and drops below $4,750, we may see a correction toward $4,650. Indicators are completely neutral, RSI around 55, and MACD without strong momentum.

Regarding gold price forecasts for the coming days, analysts are divided. UBS suggests we could reach $6,200 in the medium term, but the Asian bank expects sideways movement with an upward tilt. The key point is that everything now depends on three factors together: US interest rates, geopolitical developments, and actual demand, not just one factor. This means more volatility, and any political news could change the trend immediately.