😱🚀🔥 Forget the Last Rally—Bitcoin’s Real Bull Run is Just Starting

Has The Bull Run Begun For Bitcoin?
US manufacturing data may signal the start of a bull run for Bitcoin.

TheRealPlanC, creator of the Bitcoin Quantile Model and a Bitcoin researcher, calls the rally of recent years a "semi-bull season" because it lacked a solid macroeconomic foundation. His thesis is clear: Bitcoin has never experienced a full bull market since 2009 when the PMI was below 50.

So what has changed now? Liquidity.

History speaks quite clearly on this point. The $8 trillion injected into the system by global central banks during the COVID period propelled the price of Bitcoin from $5,000 to $68,000. Going further back, the picture remains the same: the 2012-2013 and 2020-2021 bull runs coincided with global M2 expansion. Today, US M2 is growing at 4.3% annually, China's M2 at 9%, and the Eurozone's M3 at 3.4%. So, the money supply is increasing, and some of this capital may flow into risky assets.

In addition, the picture is solidifying on the ETF side. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen uninterrupted inflows for 5 weeks; institutional demand is no longer speculative, but structural.

This is where the PMI comes in and further strengthens the ground. The US Manufacturing PMI came in above 50 for the fourth consecutive time in April at 52.7, while S&P Global showed its strongest level since May 2022 at 54.5. Between 2023-2025, the PMI remained below 50 for approximately 26 months, and Bitcoin gained 700% during that period, but according to the researcher, this wasn't a real bull run, it was just a rehearsal.

The only missing link is still the Fed. Inflationary pressures and oil prices continue to block interest rate cuts. However, the money supply is increasing, industry is growing, and institutions are buying.

However, the question remains: If the Fed's interest rate path aligns with growing manufacturing data and liquidity expansion continues, could this momentum become much stronger? Tom Lee says, "If we see a third consecutive positive monthly close in May, the bear market is definitely over." Indeed, historically, three consecutive monthly green candles in BTC have been an indicator confirming the end of a bear market.

The current picture is clear: After reaching its peak of $126,198 in October 2025, BTC retreated to $60,000 in February. March and April closed positively, and May has been positive so far. According to Lee, a close above $76,000 in May could confirm a bull market.

The ISM data on June 1st will clarify future price movements. If the thesis is correct, the bull market has just begun.
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