Recently, the trend of the US Dollar Index has attracted a lot of discussion, especially the rebound performance since entering 2026. In early January, the US Dollar Index kept rising and broke above 99—this signal is definitely worth paying attention to.

In the short term, the key at the time was the US December non-farm payroll data. Some analysts said that unless the employment report exceeds expectations, the dollar’s rally may only be a brief flare-up. Even more interestingly, it was pointed out that the dollar was in a “fragile situation” then, and any signs of weakness in the labor market could drag it down. This indicates that the dollar’s future direction will not be smooth sailing.

But in the long run, institutions are far from unified in their views on the dollar. Citibank is relatively optimistic and believes the market has underestimated the potential for accelerated growth in the US economy. They noted that factors such as the Big and US legislation, the AI boom, and others could drive the US economy to accelerate again in 2026, thereby supporting a rebound in the dollar. According to Citibank’s forecast, the US Dollar Index may reach 99.8 in the first quarter of 2026, and then rise further.

By contrast, JPMorgan is more cautious. They believe that the divergence in policies between the Federal Reserve and global central banks, along with the pressure from US fiscal expansion, will continue to weigh on the dollar. Their forecast is much lower, expecting the US Dollar Index to be around 97.8 in the first quarter of 2026.

Nomura Securities’ view lies somewhere in between. It forecasts that the dollar will rise first and then fall—after rising to 100.1 in the first quarter, it will begin to retreat.

To be honest, the extent of the disagreement over the dollar’s future direction reflects the market’s uncertainty about the outlook for the US economy. It is true that US economic data has shown resilience, and geopolitical risks do support the dollar, but whether this momentum can be sustained over the long term depends on how key data—such as employment and inflation—perform. That’s also why many people are closely watching important economic indicators like non-farm payrolls.